Category Archives: Severe Weather

Hot & Humid Today; Stormy Weather Returns Sunday…

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 9.12.57 AMHighlights:

  • Hot and humid today
  • Scattered strong to severe storms Sunday
  • Unsettled early next week

After another wild evening of storms and flooding across central IN it’s good to see the sun shining this morning.  We think today will be a mostly dry day across the region, but will be plenty hot and humid.  Certainly plan to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water if you’re planning any lengthy outdoor activities today.

The break in the wet, stormy weather won’t last long as scattered to numerous thunderstorms return Sunday, including more hefty rainfall totals possible.  A few storms may become severe with damaging wind and large hail.

Early next week will remain unsettled, but we’re keeping our fingers crossed for a drier regime by the middle of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 2.5″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms

PM Storms; Cooler And More Pleasant Air Coming For Mid Week

Screen Shot 2015-07-14 at 7.52.49 AMHighlights:

  • Another round of PM storms
  • Cooler; drier stretch of weather midweek
  • Storms rumble Friday as hot and humid weather builds
  • Hot and very humid weekend

One more round of showers and thunderstorms will fire this afternoon, some of which may be strong to severe.  Thankfully, needed drier (and cooler) air will build in tonight and help set up a very pleasant mid week.

With all of the rain, hot weather fans haven’t been able to enjoy much in the way of significant summer heat this summer; however, things will change (briefly) this weekend.  Very humid air will expand into the region over the weekend, including true summer heat as highs go into the lower 90s both Saturday and Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the push of hot, humid air, Friday but we think the weekend will be dry at this point.

The hot, humid weather won’t last long as a cold front moves in Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  A much cooler air mass will return next week behind the frontal boundary.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Sunday Evening Update On Monday’s Weather Situation…

6psatAn update this evening shows severe thunderstorms beginning to ignite over the northern Plains.  This is all associated with the first in a series of upper disturbances that will move southeast and provide multiple waves of severe weather around our neck of the woods over the upcoming 24-48 hours.

Data this evening really hasn’t changed from what we think will be a potentially dangerous day of severe weather and flooding across central Indiana.  It’ll be highly important to remain weather-aware tomorrow and have a means of getting the latest weather information.  Please take all warnings seriously.  Conditions are highly favorable for numerous damaging wind reports tomorrow and we suggest taking severe thunderstorm warnings as if they were tornado warnings tomorrow because of this.

* Please understand that though some of the data below includes time stamps for reference of what the radar may look like that these storm complexes often take a mind of their own and can accelerate off to the southeast sometimes quicker than what modeled radar may project 12+ hours out.  Tomorrow will certainly be a nowcast situation, beginning early in the morning.

With that said, we forecast multiple waves of severe weather tomorrow, beginning in the morning.  With high PWAT values, or precipitable water values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding.  It should be noted that with precipitable water values of over 2″ tomorrow (photo below) combined with recent saturated soils, flash flooding is a major concern.

1Speaking of flash flooding, latest data suggests rainfall of only 0.8″-1.5″ within a (3) hr. time period will lead to flash flooding.

ffg_IN_3Again, keeping in mind with the disclaimer prior, here’s what the radar may look like late morning, mid afternoon, and tomorrow night.

11a

3p

11pIn addition to the aforementioned flash flood concerns, we’re also supremely concerned with the potential of damaging straight line winds, particularly with the 3rd complex of storms Monday evening/ night.  Earlier in the day, and depending on how the atmosphere “recovers” with the 1st round of storms Monday morning, conditions are favorable for discrete super cells to develop during the mid afternoon (radar image #2 above).  While there are questions, early to mid afternoon would be the most likely time frame for potential tornadic activity and large hail.

To close, please ensure you have a means of getting the latest weather information Monday- beginning early in the morning.  Go ahead and charge your phones, tablets, and other electronics.  We suggest reviewing your severe weather safety plan with your family this evening  to provide a peace of mind, and to ensure you and your loved ones are prepared in the event severe weather and flooding develops.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Tornadoes