Category: Severe Weather

Oct 14

Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?

A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.

Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.

A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).

We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.

Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.

This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.

This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…

Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/taste-of-winter-before-months-end/

Oct 13

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/harvest-19-tis-the-season-for-changeable-weather-patterns/

Oct 10

VIDEO: Friday Will Feature Major Weather Changes Across The Region…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-friday-will-feature-major-weather-changes-across-the-region/

Oct 06

Harvest ’19: Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 10.06.19 through 10.13.19

7-Day Precipitation: Average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Between some wide swings in the temperature department over the upcoming week, things should “balance out” right around seasonal norms when all is said and done.

Severe Weather: We’ll continue to monitor the possibility of a few strong storms Thursday evening into Friday as a potent cold front pushes across the region. A strong southerly flow will help to briefly pull a warmer and moist air mass north across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes and could be sufficient enough to promote strong-severe storms directly ahead of the boundary. We’ll have to fine tune timing in the days ahead, but target the period between late Thursday and Friday afternoon for now.

Frost/ Freeze: A killing freeze will put an end to the growing season across the Plains by late week and the season’s first frost will likely occur for many across the central and northern Ohio Valley next weekend.

Drought Monitor: Abnormally dry areas are still present across portions of east-central IN into Ohio with more widespread droughty areas across KY. Today’s weather system into early Monday will help our friends across southern IN and KY pick up beneficial rainfall.

Summary: A cold front will move through the area today into Monday morning with needed moisture, especially across southern areas of the viewing area. Cooler, drier air will settle into the state as we move through the early portion of the work week before things turn potentially stormy late week ahead of the next strong cold front. The coolest air so far this autumn season will arrive next weekend, including the potential of the first frost for some…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/harvest-19-weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update/

Sep 30

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.30.19 through 10.06.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Though significant cooling will take place later this week and weekend, overall, the period will run above average in the temperature department with the near record heat to open the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: In addition to the Rockies, the upper Mid West, northern Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast will likely receive their first frost or freeze of the season Friday and/ or Saturday morning.

Drought Monitor: Widespread dry to droughty conditions exist across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Ohio Valley and lower Michigan. Portions of northern IL into northern IN and lower MI cashed in on excessive rainfall late last week and show greatly improved conditions from a drought perspective with this week’s update. Unfortunately, the cold front that’s set to deliver the much cooler air later this week won’t have much moisture to work with and an overall dry time of things should continue for the better part of the region.

Summary: A strong southwesterly air flow will promote anomalous heat as we traverse the first half of the work week. In some cases, records will fall across the Ohio Valley region. Looking ahead, a stout cold front will sink south in the Wednesday evening-Thursday time frame. A few showers are likely ahead of the front, but significant or widespread rainfall isn’t anticipated. The much bigger deal will be the significantly cooler air that arrives Thursday evening into the weekend. We’ll go from temperatures around 20 degrees above normal to open the work week to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by late week.

The next best shot of organized beneficial rainfall will arrive late Sunday into early Monday of next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-8/