Category: Rain

Much Needed Dry Time On Deck For #Harvest14…

Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.

Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.

gfs_precip_mslp_east_19

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_precip_mslp_east_27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_precip_mslp_east_43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.

The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region.  The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European.  We’ll continue to monitor.

gfs_precip_mslp_east_51

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

cmc_precip_mslp_east_26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.

814prcp.new

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.

gfs_total_precip_east_30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:

KIND_2014101418_tx_192

If your company depends on snow removal or other types of winter weather, please send us an e-mail for customized winter weather consulting at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/much-needed-dry-time-on-deck-for-harvest14/

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Rain, Dry Time, And Frost?!

More rain is in the forecast today and Wednesday as a big, slow moving autumn storm system takes its time moving through the region. Additional rain the next 36 hours…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-rain-dry-time-and-frost/

Stormy Times Today; Severe Weather Tonight…

It’s a wet and stormy start for many this morning. Despite some local downpours and embedded thunder, all of this morning’s storms will remain below severe levels. Periods of showers…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-times-today-severe-weather-tonight/

Cool Autumn Weekend; Severe Storm Potential Monday Night…

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-storm-night-icon

 Status-weather-showers-scattered-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

– –/ 59

42/ 62

56/ 73

55/ 67

52/ 63

51/ 60

50/ 69 

Cool Autumn Weekend…The rest of today will feature mid and high level cloudiness, but dry conditions.  Cool north to northeast winds will blow and require jackets or sweaters if venturing outside for too long of a time.

Be sure to enjoy the brief dry weather Saturday as shower chances return as early as Sunday, particularly during the afternoon hours and on.  Moisture will begin to surge back north in advance of a storm system that will lead to some rough weather around these parts to open the new work week.

Monday Severe Potential…Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warmer and more humid feel of things Monday out ahead of our next strong storm system.  We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning and want to highlight the threat of damaging straight line wind potential embedded with a possible squall line.  Beforehand, showers and embedded thunder will be possible during the daytime Monday.

We note the GFS remains consistent on strong to severe storm potential Monday night into Tuesday morning while the European is more delayed (suggesting more of a threat during the day time Tuesday).  For now, we’re leaning more towards the GFS and we’ll have more on the early week severe threat Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet during this time, including widespread 1″-1.5″, with locally heavier totals.

Taking The More Optimistic Approach…Some forecast data wants to keep considerable cloudiness and pesky light showers around into the mid week period, but for now we’re still going with the more optimistic outlook and including drier weather along with cooler temperatures for the balance of the upcoming work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
hires_ref_ky_61

We continue to highlight Monday night/ Tuesday morning for the potential of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds. Here’s what the high resolution NAM simulated radar suggests at 8p Monday local time.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-autumn-weekend-severe-storm-potential-monday-night/

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

gfs_slp_precip_conus_19

f96

The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

gfs_dew2m_east_33

A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

gfs_pwat_mslp_east_35

We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/