September: Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

Month-to-date, September has been a warm (+3.5 degrees) and wet (+1.17″) month across central Indiana.

month-tdevmonth-ppercThe warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.

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cfs_tprecip_anom_conus_2016092000_21The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.

nws_precip_conus2_90Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.

ndfd_pop_over_80_8In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.

hires_ref_indy_16The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.

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4In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.

gefs_qpf_ens_ky_33As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.

Dry, Warm Week…

screen-shot-2016-09-18-at-8-36-26-pmHighlights:

  • Dry week for the most part
  • Unseasonably warm
  • Significant cold front looms

Extended Stretch Of Dry Weather…Despite a weak frontal boundary getting close enough to create an isolated shower Tuesday, we’re looking at dry conditions this week, complete with plentiful amounts of sunshine.  Average temperatures for mid September include lower 50s for lows and highs in the lower 70s.  With highs this week surging into the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle 60s, it’s safe we’ll enjoy some bonus “summer time!”

For those longing for the chilly, crisp conditions of the fall season, hang in there.  A strong cold front will approach the region late in the weekend and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. MUCH cooler air awaits behind the boundary…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Scattered Storms Today; More Widespread Rain Saturday…

screen-shot-2016-09-14-at-7-41-26-amHighlights:

  • Scattered storms
  • More concentrated; heavier rain this weekend
  • Drier to open the work week

Scattered Storms Around…A weak frontal boundary will kick up a couple of scattered storms today.  While rainfall totals won’t be uniform (some may not even see any rain at all), a couple of heavier downpours are a good bet.  We’ll notice a drier and slightly cooler air mass overnight into Thursday.

The dry time won’t last long as a more significant storm system approaches this weekend. Most of the daytime Friday should be dry, but rain and storm chances will increase Friday night and Saturday continues to look wet with periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Morning showers will impact portions of the region Sunday before we dry things out Sunday PM.  Dry times continue to open the new work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″-1.50″