Category: Rain

Jun 05

Dry Times Remain: Briefly Cooler Then The Heat Is On…

Our overall weather pattern will be dominated by short-term cooling, significant warming by the weekend, and dry times continuing.

We’re noticing a significant change to the brand of our air mass this evening as a northerly wind is taking hold and helping to usher in lower dew points.  This is only the beginning of a significantly cooler stretch of weather that will take us through the day Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.  While the upper level low will drift south into the Northeast, our region will be dominated by a northerly flow and a much cooler, refreshing air mass into the latter portions of the work week.

In fact, we forecast highs Wednesday to only top the upper 60s, and this will be a good 10°-15° below average for June 7th.  Lows each morning through Friday will start out in the lower-middle 50s for the city, itself, but some outlying neighborhoods will fall deep into the 40s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June!

High pressure will dominate our weather through late week, continuing the overall drier than normal theme.

Models slowly begin to increase moisture levels as we move into the weekend and an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop, but widespread rains of significance aren’t anticipated for the foreseeable future.

The bigger story by the weekend will be a developing hot weather pattern.  Temperatures will be flirting with the 90° mark as early as Sunday and Monday.  Instead of running 10°-15° below normal such as midweek, temperatures by early next week will be running 5°-10° above normal and very much like the “heart” of summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dry-times-remain-briefly-cooler-then-the-heat-is-on/

Jun 01

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/drier-trend-continues-this-weekend/

Jun 01

JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

  • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
  • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
  • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

Week 1:

The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

Week 2:

The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

Weeks 3-4

While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-cool-gives-way-to-more-seasonal-conditions/

May 31

Pleasant Now; Weekend Storm Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Sunshine returns
  • Very pleasant
  • Weekend storms
  • Much cooler next week

Very Pleasant…After a couple of gusty thundershowers overnight we’re quickly back to dry and very pleasant weather conditions today.  Thankfully, sunshine and refreshing temperatures will continue Thursday.

Moisture begins to return as early as Friday afternoon and scattered late-day thunderstorms are possible.  While scattered thunderstorms will continue Saturday, there will be more dry time than wet and stormy.  The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Sunday as a cold front moves in.

That cold front will be off to our east Sunday night and help usher in a much cooler feel early next week.  Gusty northwest winds and a couple showers are still possible at times through early week.  The bigger story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures as we expect highs in the upper 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-now-weekend-storm-chances-return/

May 30

Challenging Northwest Flow Remains…

The region will remain in a challenging northwest flow for the balance of the upcoming 10-14 day period.  This can play havoc with forecast models, particularly from a timing standpoint.  In short, expect a continuation of active weather, including wetter and cooler than normal conditions.

Another weak disturbance will kick up a few scattered showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm tonight.  Similar to Monday, this will come after a gorgeous day.

Forecast radar at 1a Wednesday shows scattered showers still impacting portions of the state:

The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend.  Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.

There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.

Longer-term, modeling continues to suggest a cooler than normal pattern persists as we push through the first half of June.

In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/challenging-northwest-flow-remains/