Category: Rain

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 04.08.24 @ 6:30p

We’re running a little more than 3° below normal to open the month, but changes are in the offing. The majority of the upcoming 7-day period should feature seasonal to above normal temperatures and that will likely only strengthen into the Week 2 timeframe.

Unfortunately, we have a big rain event set to unfold as we roll through the middle of the week. Rain (more “showery” in nature) will continue as we close out the work week before a gorgeous Saturday.

The recent chilly open to April will begin to transition to a warmer look over the upcoming week.
Slightly cooler air Friday will give way to a significant warm-up through the weekend and into Week 2.

Our expected active spring will remain intact over the next couple weeks, including an overall above average look in the rainfall department.

In the short-term period, this is highlighted between what falls Wednesday-Friday.

Though severe weather won’t be a concern, heavy rain will during the aforementioned timeframe. We still think widespread 1.5”+ amounts are likely for many area rain gauges. As of now, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, based on the SLP track. Further east into Ohio, a few severe storms will be on the table. We’ll monitor for any last minute west adjustments leading into the system.

Widespread, soaking rains will turn more “showery” in nature Friday before dry air takes firm control and provides a pleasant Saturday.

Don’t get used to the dry weather. Despite the warmer trend, another round of rain and storms can be expected the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.

Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.5” to 2.5”

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Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/

VIDEO: Trending In The Right Direction As We Open The Weekend, But Still Have To Get Through A Couple Damp, Chilly Days…

Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…

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VIDEO: Weather Whiplash, Indeed; Another Active Stretch On Deck By Early Next Week…

Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…

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VIDEO: Batten Down The Hatches; Keeping An Eye On A Line Of Potentially Strong-Severe Storms Tuesday PM…

Updated 03.25.24 @ 7:25a While the work week will open on a quiet note today, we’ll really notice an uptick in winds by afternoon and these will only continue to…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-batten-down-the-hatches-keeping-an-eye-on-a-line-of-potentially-strong-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/