Jan 04
Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-multiple-impactful-storms-into-mid-month-discussing-overnight-ensemble-trends/
Jan 02
Updated 01.02.24 @ 7:50a The next few days are quiet and will allow us to catch our breath ahead of a blitz of storm systems that start this weekend and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-2-storms-in-the-short-term-long-range-pattern-rumblings-both-for-and-against-sustainable-cold/
Dec 28
Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:09a
Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a
There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).
As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:
Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.
The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).
Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.
Week 1
Week 2
While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.
That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.
European Weekly update 12/29/23
The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-at-times-for-some-updated-long-range-thoughts/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.23 @ 3:04p
The stage has been set for some time concerning late December and the first week to 10 days of January. There are no changes on our ideas concerning that timeframe. In short, a colder (certainly from where we’ve been as of late, and slightly below the average), and stormy evolution sums up that period.
The timeframe now in question has to do with mid and late January, after what sure looks to be a 5-7 day period of moderation. Unlike what we’ve outlined for late December and early January, the second half of January is likely to feature more in the way of a case of “extreme and nothing in between” type pattern. As outlined in Thursday’s long range post, up to this point, modeling has a couple of different takes on the aforementioned period. The American guidance suggests a repeat of well above normal temperatures and a general lack of winter weather looms with an MJO look poised for the classic warm phases.
You likely don’t need us to remind you of January and February last year. Indianapolis ran a whopping 8.1° above normal through the first couple months of the year.
The reason? An amplified MJO rolling slowly through the Phases 3, 4, and 5 before getting into the colder phases late February and into March.
Back to present day, the American guidance, though slowly backing off from the aggressive idea from a couple days ago, suggests this is once again on the table. Should that come to fruition, mid January would feature well above normal temperatures yet again.
As the great Lee Corso famously coined, “not so fast, my friend.” The European guidance collapses the MJO into the null, or neural phase, before getting into the warm phases. While a period of moderation still will likely follow the chilly open to January, should the Euro idea be correct (and we suspect it is- more on that below), an eventual recycling through the cold phases would likely ensue late January into early February.
By this point, guidance is also beginning to align on other important pattern drivers. Remember, by mid January, we really start to lean in on what the NAO and AO are doing. That’s certainly not to say we don’t pay attention to the PNA and EPO- just that the AO/ NAO can have greater influence on the regime into early spring. Of course, the MJO remains king.
What’s interesting is that each respective “driver” positions itself in a manner that argues cold should rule during the late January and early February period.
Should that MJO circle back into the traditional cold phases, look out. The window will open for a period of true arctic air getting involved with the pattern given the other pattern drivers above. – Target period would be late January (after Jan. 15th) and into early February.
Given what’s out there for the taking, it’s certainly not a pattern for the faint of heart. Buckle up!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-tale-of-2-potential-extremes-for-late-january-and-an-early-lean/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.23 @ 7a When we look at our current mild December, I suppose it should really come as no surprise, especially given our research that began early September with…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wet-unseasonably-mild-christmas-still-on-deck-colder-shift-to-close-the-year-and-open-january/