Updated 11.27.22 @ 6:20p
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Category: PNA
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-updated-thoughts-on-the-december-pattern/
Nov 26
After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?
Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a
November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).
Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.
Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.
It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.
Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.
Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…
At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/
Nov 15
VIDEO: Short-Term Snow Update; Pattern Drivers That Should Dominate The Bulk Of This Year’s Holiday Season…
Updated 11.15.22 @ 7:43a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-term-snow-update-pattern-drivers-that-should-dominate-the-bulk-of-this-years-holiday-season/
Nov 10
Long Range Outlook: Jab, Jab, Boom?
Updated 11.10.22 @ 9:18a
After a warm open to November, things are progressing to plan as our much anticipated mid month shift to cold takes place.
A quick glance at the teleconnections over the course of the next couple weeks (remember, we still lean heaviest on the PNA and EPO at this time of the year) reveals agreement in the short term of the cold shift but note movement back towards neutral towards the end of the period.
While this may give reason for panic to some, we note the MJO scheduled to move out of Phase 8 (currently), whip across the “null” phase before moving into textbook phases for eastern cold for late November (Phases 5-6).
The analogs for such phases this time of year will make winter weather fans salivate.
Despite this setup laid out above, the new JMA Weeklies want none of my idea of a cold start to December. Despite the chilly look Weeks 1-2, the model rolls right into an eastern ridge by early December. It’s safe to say as of now, I remain in the cold camp, especially given what the MJO amplitude should provide as we rumble into the last month of the year. Nonetheless, it’s less than ideal to see a normally trusted model in such disagreement and we’ll have to keep an eye on trends over the course of the next couple weeks…
Perhaps the model is seeing a transitional move through Phase 7? That would allow a milder pattern in briefly, but again I would reiterate the look of what should be an amplified MJO as we move into December and a jaunt through Phase 8, 1, and 2 is likely in my opinion. Just for fun, this is what those phases provide.
One way or another, we have a lot of work (and fun) ahead. My hunch tells me any long range (what would currently be Week 4 in particular) data will be forced to cool, and perhaps significantly so, as time draws closer.
In the meantime, don’t sleep on next week. There should be at least one attempt for some sort of winter weather maker into the Ohio Valley, if not two.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-jab-jab-boom/
Nov 03
LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?
Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/