Category: PNA

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Apr 05

Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

• Filed under AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

• April 5, 2024

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.

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Mar 09

Long Range Report: Period Opens With More Of The Same, But Cooler Than Normal For A Change Late Month…

• Filed under AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• March 9, 2024

Updated 03.09.24 8:14a

It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.

In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.

That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.

This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.

The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:

Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?

The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.

A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).

No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.

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Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

• Filed under AO, Arctic Cold, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, January Thaw, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter thoughts...

• January 31, 2024

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

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