Category: Plant ’18

Quick Evening Notes: Warm Pattern Grabs The Headlines In The Longer Range…

As we look over the 12z long range guidance, we see a common theme: warmer (dare I say “hotter”) than average.  Additionally, most data paints a drier than normal trend Days 10-20, as well.

The GEFS shows eastern ridging gaining control during the period which favors a warmer than normal pattern.  Consensus of other data is similar in the upper levels.

At the surface, all three major global models agree on warmth in the long range period, including the GEFS, EPS, and CFSv2:

Guidance suggests below average precipitation during the period.  With broad scale ridging in place, we agree on a drier theme compared to normal.  While trying to put our finger on the flip from the prolonged cold to warmer was difficult to nail down from March and April, May always looked like a drier than average month from several weeks out.  (One note is the potential of active times across the Great Lakes region as “sudden summer” gains steam to the south and stubborn chill refuses to let go to our north.  The gradient would promote heavier than normal precipitation relative to average).

Given the agreement in the data, along with some additional pattern drivers, we continue to believe the medium to longer term period (including mid and late May) will feature an overall warmer than average pattern along with drier than normal conditions.

More on the short-term in the morning, including what will be a summer-like feel by late week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/quick-evening-notes-warm-pattern-grabs-the-headlines-in-the-longer-range/

VIDEO: Refreshing Open To The Week Gives Way To Building Late Week Humidity…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/video-refreshing-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-building-late-week-humidity/

PM Storms Today; Turning Up The Warmth And Humidity Late Week…

Our morning is off to a gorgeous start, including clear skies and pleasant temperatures!  Take the coffee out on the front porch this morning and enjoy!

A cold front currently sits off to our northwest and this will move southeast as we head through the afternoon and evening hours.  As the front slides through central Indiana, we’ll forecast scattered showers and thundershowers to develop this afternoon, lasting up to around sunset before diminishing.

Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings.  High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.

A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend.  We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend.  The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.

While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected.  There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/06/pm-storms-today-turning-up-the-warmth-and-humidity-late-week/

VIDEO: Gusty Storms For Some Sunday; Mid-Late May Warmth…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/05/video-gusty-storms-for-some-sunday-mid-late-may-warmth/

VIDEO: Wrapping Up The Work Week And Looking Ahead…

 

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/03/video-wrapping-up-the-work-week-and-looking-ahead/

VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Storms Moving In & Looking At The Weekend…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/03/video-short-term-update-on-storms-moving-in-looking-at-the-weekend/

Tracking Storms To Close The Work Week Before A Fantastic Saturday!

Storms are ongoing across northern portions of the state this evening and these will continue into the wee morning hours, as illustrated by the latest high resolution forecast radar products.

Forecast radar at 1a Thursday.

As we progress into the predawn hours, we’ll notice increasing coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity across central Indiana.  It sure appears as if the Thursday morning commute will feature noisy storms, including locally heavy rain.

Forecast radar at 8a Thursday.

After the morning round of storms scoots off to the east, drier times are forecast to arrive through the early afternoon, but storms should quickly redevelop during the evening hours, continuing in scattered fashion into the first half of Friday.

Forecast radar at 6p Thursday.

Finally, as the front passes Friday afternoon, a line of strong storms may impact southern Indiana prior to sunset Friday.  Here across central Indiana, we’ll notice a drier brand of air working in from northwest to southeast through the evening hours.

Forecast radar at 7p Friday.

Thoughts haven’t changed with respect to rainfall totals: 0.50″ to 1″ with locally heavier amounts, especially across northern portions of the state.

High pressure returns Saturday and will help set up a fantastic weather day.  We’ll enjoy an increasingly sunny sky and pleasant temperatures topping out in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon.  It’ll be a perfect day for those Cinco de Mayo and Derby festivities!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/02/tracking-storms-to-close-the-work-week-before-a-fantastic-saturday/

VIDEO: Warming Trend Highlights The Upcoming Week; Unsettled Times Return Midweek…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/29/video-warming-trend-highlights-the-upcoming-week-unsettled-times-return-midweek/

Weekend Rambles: Dry Conditions Remain; Sunday Morning Freeze…

I. A cold front blew through the state last night and we’ll deal with a gusty northerly breeze throughout the day. At times, periods of low clouds will be with us, especially into the early afternoon hours.  As skies clear and winds diminish tonight, a hard freeze is likely for most of central Indiana, including the potential of setting a new record low in Indianapolis (record low for Sunday is 31°).

II. High pressure will build in for the second half of the weekend and remain in control of our weather through the first half of the work week.  Dry conditions will remain along with a significant warming trend.

III. We’ll actually go above normal (for a change) through the early and middle parts of next week, including highs around 80° by Tuesday!

IV. Unsettled weather returns for the second half of the work week. Models differ on rainfall totals, but we’ll include mention of 7-day totals in the 0.75″ to 1.25″ range- most of which falls Thursday and Friday.

V. Cooler than normal temperatures will return for Week 2 so be sure to enjoy the warmth while we have it next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/28/weekend-rambles-dry-conditions-remain-sunday-morning-freeze/

VIDEO: New Record Low Sunday? Looking Ahead To Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/27/video-new-record-low-sunday-looking-ahead-to-next-week/

IndyWx.com