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Category: Plant ’18
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/16/video-more-active-times-await/
May 16
Wednesday Morning Rambles…
1.) A narrow, but persistent band of downpours continues to fall just south of the metro this morning. Places from Martinsville to Trafalgar and Shelbyville are enjoying needed rain this morning.
2.) Overall, a drier air mass will build into central Indiana today and Thursday (cooler, too) before moisture returns to close the week. Scattered showers and embedded thunder are more likely Friday and again late Sunday into Monday.
3.) Looking ahead, we notice a more active pattern is presented off the overnight GEFS model. The heat ridge backs west and sets up a busy “ring of fire” pattern with a northwest flow aloft across our region. We have a ways to go before developing consistency and overall confidence, but this is at least an encouraging sign. The end result, should this come to fruition, would be a significantly wetter open to June.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/16/wednesday-morning-rambles-8/
May 14
VIDEO: Record Warmth And Turning Humid, Too…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/14/video-record-warmth-and-turning-humid-too/
May 13
Still Warm, But Much More Active…
So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective. While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south. It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy. That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many. By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/13/still-warm-but-much-more-active/
May 12
VIDEO: A More Active Pattern Awaits…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/12/video-a-more-active-pattern-awaits/
May 10
Thursday Evening Rambles…
1.) A gorgeous Thursday evening will give way to increasing cloudiness overnight along with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm coverage into the wee morning hours Friday. The culprit? A warm front lifting north through central Indiana.
2.) Sunshine will develop as the day progresses Friday and we’ll notice an increasingly muggy feel through the afternoon and evening. A true taste of summer can be expected as we put a wrap on the work week, including highs in the middle 80s and dew points climbing into the mid and upper 60s.
Also note the tight temperature gradient across the state. That temperature gradient will serve as the focal point between a mostly dry central Indiana through the first half of the weekend and “busier” times across northern parts of the state into the southern Great Lakes region. Locally heavy rain will fall at times with storms for our friends “up north!” We’ll remain very summer-like here into next week.
3.) Most of the weekend will be rain and storm free across central Indiana with many more dry hours than not. With that said, we’ll monitor for the prospects of a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday.
4.) The balance of next week will run significantly warmer than normal and feature an almost daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. While there will be some “haves and have nots,” most area rain gauges should accumulate 1″ to 2″ of rain by the end of next week.
5.) Speaking of rain, the new European Weeklies in tonight, courtesy of weathermodels.com, also point towards wetter times in our future. This is encouraging as it supports the going idea shown this morning from the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and GEFS. Needless to say, despite the recent dry shift, we’re not concerned for long term moisture issues (or lack thereof ;-)).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/10/thursday-evening-rambles-4/
May 09
VIDEO: Late Evening Update On Storms; Looking Ahead Into Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/video-late-evening-update-on-storms-looking-ahead-into-next-week/
May 09
Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…
We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/timing-out-storm-chances-tonight/
May 08
Attention Shifts To Wednesday Evening…
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe to encompass more of central Indiana as of the latest update:
Concern is on the increase for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact central parts of the state Wednesday evening and night. That said, there are questions with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover from morning cloudiness and scattered thundershowers.
Forecast radar shows scattered showers and embedded thunder scooting through the state Wednesday morning, especially between the hours of 9a and noon.
Current thinking leans towards a brightening sky through the mid and late afternoon hours which will help destabilize things for potentially a “more significant” event Wednesday evening and night (bracketing the hours of 6p to midnight from west to east).
We note the latest high resolution forecast radar guidance shows rather explosive development as we near the 6 o’clock hour.
Storms are expected to exit off to the east by midnight:
The primary concern that severe thunderstorms may deal central Indiana lies around damaging straight line winds and large hail, however, it should also be noted current parameters also suggest a couple of storms could spawn a tornado.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to keep close tabs on tomorrow’s forecast updates and ensure you have a means of receiving the latest information around watches and warnings that will likely come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/attention-shifts-to-wednesday-evening/
May 08
VIDEO: Storms Return Wednesday; Warmth And Humidity Build…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/video-storms-return-wednesday-warmth-and-humidity-build/