Updated 12.31.21 @ 8a
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Category: New Year’s Eve/ Day
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-changeable-conditions-as-we-open-2022/
Dec 30
VIDEO: More Significant Storm As We Usher In The New Year; Long Range Update…
Updated 12.30.21 @ 8a
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Dec 29
VIDEO: Tracking Multiple Systems In The Week Ahead…
Updated 12.29.21 @ 8:17a
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Dec 27
Busy Pattern To Close Out The Year And Open 2022…
Updated 12.27.21 @ 4:58p
A busy weather pattern will be with us as we wrap up the year and head into 2022. The first in a seemingly unending series of systems will blow into town Tuesday and feature a period of heavy rain across central Indiana by afternoon, along with a shot of wintry weather for our neighbors across northern Indiana.
Additional (lighter) rain will arrive Wednesday evening. Rain will approach 3/4 of an inch across the greater Indianapolis area and snowfall should span within the 1” to 3” range for most across far northern Indiana Tuesday PM.
Additional storm systems will roll through here Wednesday night and Thursday and again Friday night and Saturday. The 3rd storm system appears to be the most significant within this batch and should lead to a messy New Year’s Day, including opportunity for additional heavy rain.
For those with travel plans north around New Years, expect the opportunity to encounter more impactful wintry conditions across areas just to our northwest with that system. Early indications suggest this could be a heavy snow maker for areas from the central Plains into the lower Lakes.
On that note, let’s keep close eyes on trailing upper level energy that may lead to a “surprise” second area of snow south with the New Year’s system. This is met with much lower confidence (always is with trailing upper lows in the medium term), but the overall pattern does support the potential of a secondary area of accumulating snow and we’ll keep a close eye on that moving forward. Ohio Valley, TN Valley, or even further east? Anyone’s guess at this point and we’ll continue to closely monitor…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-pattern-to-close-out-the-year-and-open-2022/
Dec 26
For Now, It’s A Tale Of The MJO And PNA…
Updated 12.26.21 @ 7:38a
Over the past couple of weeks, several of the teleconnections (EPO, AO, and NAO) have been in favorable phases for cold air to take up residence in our neck of the woods. However the combination of Phase 6 of the MJO (image 1 below) and a deeply negative PNA (image 2 below) have fought off any sustained or significant cold.
As we look ahead, there are changes in both of these critical pattern drivers. First, the MJO looks to continue progressing deeper into Phase 7. This is significant as today, though while officially in 7, we’re really still feeling the effects of 6. There’s a lean from guidance that Phase 8 is also within reach as we get towards mid-January, but we won’t get greedy. 🙂 If we can at least get deeper into 7, that will greatly lessen the influence of the warmth that continues to linger with Phase 6.
Note how the trough likes to settle into the eastern portion of the country during these phases.
That then brings us to the PNA. Guidance is trending things closer to neutral towards Day 10. This is significant as it would allow the southeastern ridge to at least get beaten down (not totally squashed as long as we remain negative), but certainly enough to allow the cold currently bottled up out west to bleed east.
This can be illustrated best by looking at the 500mb pattern evolution over the next couple weeks per the latest GFS ensemble below.
To summarize, while we still have warm days ahead of us, there does at least appear to be a couple trends heading in the right direction for all of those longing for colder and potentially more wintry times as we get past the new year.
Hang in there you snow lovers. It’s far too early to jump off the ship…
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