Updated 12.12.22 @ 2:50p
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Category: New Year’s Eve/ Day
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-monday-afternoon-update-on-the-2nd-half-of-december/
Dec 11
Stormy First Then The Arctic Hounds Come Barking…
Updated 12.11.22 @ 6:45a
For fans of cold, wintry weather, we’re heading towards a truly special pattern. Add in the timing of this taking place just before the holidays and that will create additional excitement for many.
A midweek frontal system will usher in the much colder changes. Unlike several of the FROPAs over the past couple weeks, the airmass behind this front will be significantly colder and have staying power. Wrap around moisture and upper level energy will likely generate snow showers/ squalls through the weekend with light snow accumulation.
That then takes us to Christmas week (where is time going?!). While still a bit too far out for specifics, it’s been several years from seeing the kind of setup between an active OHV storm track with the cold air in place. A couple of systems will likely be on the playing field, both of which, will have the potential of delivering accumulating snow. Chances of a White Christmas remain well above normal.
By the end of the Week 2 period, truly bitter cold air will likely get involved with the pattern, especially with an expanding snow pack. This is a classic look for nasty arctic air (below zero type stuff) by late Week 2/ early Week 3.
Buckle up, we’ve got a wild and fun wintry ride on our hands into and through the holidays.
I will be on the road Monday morning so expect delayed posting. I’ll have a client video discussion online by mid to late afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-first-then-the-arctic-hounds-come-barking/
Dec 09
LR Update: Pattern Discussion Through December And Into January…
Updated 12.09.22 @ 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-pattern-discussion-through-december-and-into-january/
Nov 30
Trying To Remain “Grounded” With The December Pattern…
Updated 11.30.22 @ 5:46p We’ll have our weekly long range update tomorrow, but wanted to post some thoughts around the December pattern and respective ideas this evening. First and foremost,…
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Jan 01
The Long Awaited Shift To More Winter-Like Conditions Begins…
Updated 01.01.22 @ 8:06a
From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2022!
As we embark on a new year, a new weather pattern will take hold. Consider the drastic difference of going from a regime that’s been much more October or November-like (December ‘21 temperatures ran a stunning 8.8° above average on the month) to one that will feature a series of reinforcing blasts of cold air- at what’s traditionally the coldest time of the year.
The reasons behind the shift in the pattern start with the MJO moving into Phase 8.
Can we amplify things into Phase 1 towards mid month? The American modeling suggests that’s on the playing field. Meanwhile, the Euro wants to take things towards the neutral phase. If we can swing into Phase 1, the ante would be upped for “locking” the cold in for the 2nd half of the month.
As it is, the majority of teleconnections are being “forced” (byproduct, in my opinion, of the MJO) into more favorable phases for cold. Remember, only a couple days ago this wasn’t being shown, but as the data is understanding the driving force (MJO movement), the EPO is joining the PNA and WPO colder camp. I would expect the AO trend to follow suit in the week ahead.
More on all of this in the AM, including the opportunities for snow and wintry precipitation (more than the novelty level stuff we’ll deal with early Sunday AM) in the weeks ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-long-awaited-shift-to-more-winter-like-conditions-begins/