Updated 12.29.21 @ 8:17a
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: New Year’s Eve/ Day
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/29/video-tracking-multiple-systems-in-the-week-ahead/
Dec 27
Busy Pattern To Close Out The Year And Open 2022…
Updated 12.27.21 @ 4:58p
A busy weather pattern will be with us as we wrap up the year and head into 2022. The first in a seemingly unending series of systems will blow into town Tuesday and feature a period of heavy rain across central Indiana by afternoon, along with a shot of wintry weather for our neighbors across northern Indiana.
Additional (lighter) rain will arrive Wednesday evening. Rain will approach 3/4 of an inch across the greater Indianapolis area and snowfall should span within the 1” to 3” range for most across far northern Indiana Tuesday PM.
Additional storm systems will roll through here Wednesday night and Thursday and again Friday night and Saturday. The 3rd storm system appears to be the most significant within this batch and should lead to a messy New Year’s Day, including opportunity for additional heavy rain.
For those with travel plans north around New Years, expect the opportunity to encounter more impactful wintry conditions across areas just to our northwest with that system. Early indications suggest this could be a heavy snow maker for areas from the central Plains into the lower Lakes.
On that note, let’s keep close eyes on trailing upper level energy that may lead to a “surprise” second area of snow south with the New Year’s system. This is met with much lower confidence (always is with trailing upper lows in the medium term), but the overall pattern does support the potential of a secondary area of accumulating snow and we’ll keep a close eye on that moving forward. Ohio Valley, TN Valley, or even further east? Anyone’s guess at this point and we’ll continue to closely monitor…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/27/busy-pattern-to-close-out-the-year-and-open-2022/
Dec 26
For Now, It’s A Tale Of The MJO And PNA…
Updated 12.26.21 @ 7:38a
Over the past couple of weeks, several of the teleconnections (EPO, AO, and NAO) have been in favorable phases for cold air to take up residence in our neck of the woods. However the combination of Phase 6 of the MJO (image 1 below) and a deeply negative PNA (image 2 below) have fought off any sustained or significant cold.
As we look ahead, there are changes in both of these critical pattern drivers. First, the MJO looks to continue progressing deeper into Phase 7. This is significant as today, though while officially in 7, we’re really still feeling the effects of 6. There’s a lean from guidance that Phase 8 is also within reach as we get towards mid-January, but we won’t get greedy. 🙂 If we can at least get deeper into 7, that will greatly lessen the influence of the warmth that continues to linger with Phase 6.
Note how the trough likes to settle into the eastern portion of the country during these phases.
That then brings us to the PNA. Guidance is trending things closer to neutral towards Day 10. This is significant as it would allow the southeastern ridge to at least get beaten down (not totally squashed as long as we remain negative), but certainly enough to allow the cold currently bottled up out west to bleed east.
This can be illustrated best by looking at the 500mb pattern evolution over the next couple weeks per the latest GFS ensemble below.
To summarize, while we still have warm days ahead of us, there does at least appear to be a couple trends heading in the right direction for all of those longing for colder and potentially more wintry times as we get past the new year.
Hang in there you snow lovers. It’s far too early to jump off the ship…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/26/for-now-its-a-tale-of-the-mjo-and-pna/
Dec 16
Long-Winded Discussion Diving Into The Pattern As We Welcome In 2022…
Updated 12.16.21 @ 6:07p
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/16/long-winded-discussion-diving-into-the-pattern-as-we-welcome-in-2022/
Dec 15
VIDEO: Strong Winds Impact The Area Tonight; Wet Open To The Weekend…
Updated 12.15.21 @ 7:07a
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/15/video-strong-winds-impact-the-area-tonight-wet-open-to-the-weekend/
Dec 14
New Thoughts On The Pattern Change On Deck…
Updated 12.14.21 @ 5:25p Wholesale pattern changes are always challenging to forecast- but equally as fascinating. All indications continue to point towards a rather significant shakeup in the regime towards…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/14/new-thoughts-on-the-pattern-change-on-deck/
Dec 12
VIDEO: Sunny Sunday; Turning Windy To Open The Work Week And Looking Ahead To The Holidays…
Updated 12.12.21 @ 11:15a
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/12/video-sunny-sunday-turning-windy-to-open-the-work-week-and-looking-ahead-to-the-holidays/
Dec 31
VIDEO: Freezing Rain Creates Slick Roads Friday Morning; Active Pattern To Open Up 2021…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/31/video-freezing-rain-creates-slick-roads-friday-morning-active-pattern-to-open-up-2021/
Dec 30
VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Flip To Wet Snow This Evening And Freezing Rain NYD Morning…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/30/video-short-term-update-on-flip-to-wet-snow-this-evening-and-freezing-rain-nyd-morning/
Dec 30
12.30.20 Weather Bulletin: Timing Out Period Of Wet Snow By Evening; Icy Glaze To Open New Year’s Day…
Rain Ends As Wet Snow This Evening…A cold rain will continue to overspread central Indiana this morning. A cold front will slip south across the state through the afternoon and temperatures will fall into the 30s prior to sunset across most of the region. One final wave of moisture will push northeast across the area as temperatures fall into the low and mid 30s leading to a brief period of wet snow between 6p and 10p (northeast to southwest). We’re likely only looking at a window of 1-2 hours of snow at any one location, but it could fall moderate to heavy during that brief window and accumulate between a dusting and 1.5″. We’ll keep an eye on model trends through the day.
New Year’s Eve will feature dry, but gloomy and cold conditions. Look for overcast skies and highs struggling to make it to freezing.
Our second area of low pressure will lift north from the northwestern Gulf Coast into the Midwest Friday and Saturday. This will help widespread precipitation overspread the Hoosier state New Year’s Day (before sunrise for most). With cold air locked in at the surface, precipitation at the onset, continuing for a few hours north of a line from Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Cincinnati, will fall as freezing rain. If traveling early, we’d recommend caution as a light icy glaze (less than .10″ for most) is a good bet. Eventually warmer air will win out, switching things to a “plain ole rain” late morning into the afternoon.
Lingering showers will end Saturday as a trailing piece of upper level energy moves east across the Ohio Valley. Dry skies will return as we open up the new work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/30/12-30-20-weather-bulletin-timing-out-period-of-wet-snow-by-evening-icy-glaze-to-open-new-years-day/