Dec 09
Updated 12.09.23 @ 10:51a We’re tracking a narrow line of showers and embedded thunder this morning. This is in association with a cold front that will pass through central IN…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/09/video-evolving-active-pattern-into-mid-and-late-december/
Dec 08
Updated 12.08.23 @ 7:22a
As we hone in on the late December and early January pattern, there remains little if any change in the thought here that a more widespread cold pattern will evolve across the eastern 1/3 of the country. We note the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still showing that it wants to progress out of the traditionally warm December phases we’re in now into the colder phases post 12/20.
While we fully anticipate a more sustained colder than normal pattern to evolve in the 12/20 to 1/10 timeframe, I think this should be more of a situation that’s slightly colder than normal versus some sort of major arctic blast. All the same, as we get into the time of year when averages are close to their lowest, that will speak volumes given where we’ve been up to that point through the majority of December.
From a precipitation standpoint, these respective phases usually produce below normal precipitation across our neck of the woods, at least until we get into Phase 1 in January (interesting with the expected colder regime in place by that time period, heh?).
When we go look at the latest European ensemble precipitation anomalies over the next couple weeks (ending Dec. 22nd), the dry theme is alive and kicking. Frankly, it a very El Nino-like look (drier here while wetter across the Southeast and eastern seaboard) and shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Also of interest is the way the longer range weekly modeling shows the trough becoming more prevalent and sustained out in that post December 20th timeframe, continuing into early January.
European Weeklies: Winter wx fans also have to like all of the high latitude blocking on this run while the trough expands and sustains itself. Immediate take-away from yesterday’s run? Chilly and stormy close to the year and open to ’24.
JMA Weeklies: In similar fashion to the Euro, the model really expands and deepens the eastern trough Weeks 3-4. Again, it’s a chilly and stormy look.
In closing, we see no reason to deviate from our long standing idea of a pattern shift to chillier than normal around Christmas that should carry us into the first couple weeks of January. By that point, we’ll have to start monitoring other teleconnections (along with the MJO, of course), such as the NAO, to gain more clarity on the regime as we push into the 2nd half of meteorological winter.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/08/lr-discussion-to-close-the-year-and-head-into-the-1st-half-of-january/
Dec 01
Updated 12.01.23 @ 7:44a
Though far from a blowtorch, the pattern over the next couple weeks (1st half of December) will feature milder than normal temperatures.
The pattern drivers, starting first and foremost with the MJO (more on the impacts late December in a moment), suggest milder than normal times should hold through the first half of December overall.
The EPO is also forecast predominantly positive with an erratic PNA pattern. Bottom line, all combined, this should promote an overall mild open to the month with a lack of any sort of significant winter weather threats.
The period opens wet and finishes (mid-month) that way with dryness in between.
Focusing in more on the MJO helps illustrate the story we’re telling not only over the next couple weeks, but into early 2024.
We’re currently in the warmest phases of the MJO this time of year (3, 4, and 5 in particular), but things start to change once to Phase 6 and beyond.
Many times, cold, arctic air begins to build on our side of the pole in Phase 6 and then busts loose in Phases 7 and 8. I think that’s on the table for us this year given where it appears the MJO wants to head and this is backed by long range teleconnection charts (namely the EPO and PNA) seemingly wanting to also head into the traditional colder phases, respectively.
This image will show the progression and corresponding upper level pattern nicely.
To close, while the first half of the month doesn’t appear to be overly kind to winter weather enthusiasts, it continues to look like the combination of the MJO, EPO, and PNA are aligning in a manner that will deliver more of a wholesale pattern change to colder than normal times past mid month and especially after the 20th. By that timeframe, we’ll have to start monitoring storm systems to potentially have a more wintry theme to them.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/01/lr-update-things-progressing-as-planned-cold-pattern-looming-for-the-holidays-and-into-early-24/
Jan 01
Updated 01.01.23 @ 6:25p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/01/video-new-years-update-on-the-short-and-longer-range-set-up/
Dec 30
Updated 12.30.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/30/reasons-why-another-significant-pattern-change-likely-looms-in-january/
Dec 29
Updated 12.29.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/29/video-localized-flooding-concerns-increase-over-the-next-few-days-into-the-middle-of-next-week/
Dec 28
Updated 12.28.22 @ 6:45a
The past 7 days have featured temperatures running anywhere from 10° to 25° colder than average from the Ohio Valley into the upper Mid West.
As a whole, temperatures are running anywhere from 2° to 10° below normal for the month across the region. Officially, Indianapolis is running 2.3° below normal.
The upcoming 7-days will feature a major flip to close December and open January. Note the significant eastern ridge. This will help power temperatures into the 50s for highs into the middle of next week, with a couple 60°+ days possible.
The pattern is also going to turn quite wet as the mean storm track pulls to the northwest. Multiple low pressure systems will be able to tap into that Gulf connection, leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain at times into the middle of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/28/what-a-flip/
Dec 27
Updated 12.27.22 @ 5:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/27/video-wet-close-to-the-year-and-open-to-january/
Dec 26
Updated 12.26.22 @ 8:23a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/26/video-light-snow-today-warmer-wetter-pattern-takes-hold-to-open-the-new-year/
Dec 25
Updated 12.25.22 @ 8:11a
From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a blessed and very merry Christmas!
Our Christmas morning is getting off to another frigid start, with all of the immediate region featuring temperatures just above the 0° mark (wind chill values remain well below zero).
All but far northeastern IN is at least seeing sunshine this morning. We can thank that lake influence for keeping our northeastern neighbors overcast this morning.
53% of the country is enjoying a White Christmas. That’s the most since back in ’09 when 63% of the country was snow covered on Christmas Day.
Speaking of snow, our next snow maker will arrive overnight and remain with us through our Monday. In general, we anticipate 1″ to 2″ of snow with this system with a couple of 3″ reports. While certainly not a heavy snow event, expect slick travel Monday thanks to the recent frigid stretch of temperatures. Most persistent snow will likely fall from late morning into the early afternoon across central Indiana.
A couple of days of uneventful weather will follow our snow maker. Sunshine will return Tuesday. While still cold, temperatures will moderate close to the freezing mark for daytime highs.
Our airflow will then back around to the southwest Wednesday and this will be the beginning of a significant period of moderation. “Zoom, zoom, up and away” is how we’ll label the temperature regime heading into next weekend, including New Year’s Eve with highs into the lower 60s for many. Talk about another infamous “snap back” warm-up following an arctic intrusion. (Don’t worry winter weather fans, we’re already eyeing the return of our next cold, snow pattern by mid-January).
The trade off to the warmer weather? An extended period of gloom. Clouds will increase Wednesday and eventually give way to drizzle that will turn into periods of rain Thursday through next weekend. The heaviest rain will likely fall New Year’s Eve as an area of low pressure lifts north into the western Great Lakes.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/25/merry-christmas-to-all-another-accumulating-snow-event-on-deck-followed-by-a-significant-warm-up-as-we-close-out-the-year/