Jan 02
Updated 01.02.24 @ 7:50a The next few days are quiet and will allow us to catch our breath ahead of a blitz of storm systems that start this weekend and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/02/video-tracking-2-storms-in-the-short-term-long-range-pattern-rumblings-both-for-and-against-sustainable-cold/
Jan 01
Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!
The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂
Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.
Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?
Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.
Happy new year!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/
Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a
The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.
The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:
Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.
After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.
The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.
Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/
Dec 30
Updated 12.30.23 @ 7:54a
Despite our New Year’s Eve clipper, we’re heading for an unusually quiet weather pattern to open up the new year. The upcoming 10 days are forecast to run well below average from a precipitation standpoint.
In fact, after tomorrow’s light snow, it may not be until late next weekend or closer towards January 10th that we’re talking about our next precipitation chances. Rare, indeed, for this time of year.
Back to this morning’s headline and our clipper. Sunday should dawn dry but light snow will begin to become more widespread across central Indiana by mid to late morning.
Light snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon before we get into a brief lull in the activity. During this time frame we can also expect 10-20 MPH winds which may limit visibility slightly as the light snow falls. Daytime accumulation, if any, should be no more than a dusting.
After the lull in the activity, a second round of light snow will develop towards 10p to 11p, or so.
Though still light in nature, temperatures will settle below the freezing mark as this secondary batch of light snow falls.
While certainly not a heavy event by any means, just enough light snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely create some localized slick spots across central Indiana tomorrow evening.
(Snow removal Clients, salting is recommended tomorrow evening).
Those with NYE plans out and about should allow extra time traveling home tomorrow evening. Light snow will diminish during the overnight and drier conditions should return for New Year’s Day, itself.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/30/clipper-delivers-light-snow-for-nye/
Dec 26
Updated 12.26.23 @ 6:16a We begin to turn cooler through the day and this sets the tone for a more seasonable close to the year. We’ll continue to watch the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/26/video-turning-cooler-couple-chances-of-light-precipitation/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.23 @ 7a When we look at our current mild December, I suppose it should really come as no surprise, especially given our research that began early September with…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/23/video-wet-unseasonably-mild-christmas-still-on-deck-colder-shift-to-close-the-year-and-open-january/
Dec 21
Updated 12.21.23 @ 7:45a We’ll notice more in the way of cloud cover today but dry times will prevail. Better opportunities for light rain arrive overnight into Friday, especially across…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/21/video-timing-out-christmas-rain-and-transition-to-colder-times/
Dec 19
Updated 12.19.23 @ 6:55a “Number busting” cold is greeting us out the door this morning. Heavier cold weather gear will be required today, despite sunshine returning. An unsettled, but milder…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/19/video-pattern-drivers-align-for-late-month-early-january-evolution-periods-of-wet-weather-returns-for-christmas/
Dec 18
Updated 12.18.23 @ 7:49a Snow squalls will become widespread in the coming hours along with gusty winds and falling temperatures. Allow extra time when traveling today as we anticipate road…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/18/video-snow-squalls-inbound-gloomy-christmas-weather-and-a-look-ahead-to-a-pattern-shift-to-close-the-year/
Dec 15
Updated 12.15.23 @ 7:41a Our work week will come to a close with unseasonably pleasant conditions. Southerly breezes will help us warm quickly from the middle and upper 20s to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/15/video-rain-returns-saturday-interesting-developments-with-the-mjo-that-can-have-longer-term-impacts/