Category: NAO

Apr 05

Yet Again, Warmth Likely Only A Tease…

Updated 04.05.22 @ 6:48a

We’ve already handled the jab of unseasonable chill and even opportunity for wet snow showers late week so want to focus more on what lies ahead. The idea here has been that a mid month warm up would pave the way to more sustained spring like temperatures for the 2nd half of April. While the mid month warmup is still certainly on track, the longevity and duration of such is now met with a much, much lower confidence.

The good news? A significant warmup is still dialed up next week. (This will be extra sweet coming on the heels of what will be a rough go of things with out of season chill and snow showers later this week). Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are a good bet next week.

A potent frontal system looms late next week that we’ll have to watch for the threat of severe weather. More on that ahead in our shorter term products as we get closer. The passage of this front will also likely usher in another airmass that’s set to run below, to well below normal. Frost potential is alive and kicking week after next (remember we also have to deal with frost/ freeze conditions this upcoming weekend) with this kind of pattern. The NAO takes a negative hit which also supports the temperature reversal from what will be such a warm stretch next week…

Remember, we’re only the messenger…

In the shorter term, today isn’t looking nearly as wet as once thought. There will be a few showers around, but the steadier, more persistent rain will fall to the southeast of central Indiana.

More widespread rain and even a couple embedded storms are slated to impact our neck of the woods Wednesday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/05/yet-again-warmth-likely-only-a-tease/

Mar 31

Long Range Update: The Roller Coaster That Is Spring…

Updated 03.31.22 @ 7:09a

As we look ahead over the next couple weeks, a rather active pattern is expected to continue, including multiple storm systems that will likely impact our area every few days. This will likely also result in brief but significant spikes of warmth ahead of the system (example: yesterday’s high of 78°) in what otherwise will be a period of cooler than normal conditions.

Below normal temperatures are expected overall through the 1st half of April.

Despite the active nature of the pattern, precipitation should be pretty close to average through the middle of April, locally. The heavier rainfall, relative to average, will be confined to the Gulf Coast.

It’s been a while since we talked about the MJO and that’s due to it being a non-factor over the past couple weeks residing in the null, or neutral, phase.

Other teleconnections (namely the NAO and EPO) have supported the overall cooler regime of late. However, these drivers are in the process of flipping to states (positive) that will at least likely attempt to drive more sustained warmth our way as we approach mid-April. Modeling may be catching on to that as well. Note when looking at 5-day increments, the ‘mean’ trough position is looking to dump the trough into the West closer to mid April.

Moral of the story is to hang in there. Though we still yet have additional chilly times to get through over the next 10-14 days, there’s reason to begin buying into the potential of more sustained warmth trying to take hold towards mid and late month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/31/long-range-update-the-roller-coaster-that-is-spring/

Mar 26

Strong Storm Potential Midweek; Cold, Wintry Conditions Reinforce Themselves Next Weekend…

Updated 03.26.22 @ 8:45a

Some northern Indianapolis suburbs are waking up to more than a coating of snow this morning (have reports of 1″ to 2″ in and around Fishers this morning). Across other parts of the area, snow didn’t accumulate much more than a dusting, but all of the area has gotten in on the late season snow “excitement” (at least seeing it fall) between last night and early Saturday morning.

As we progress through the day, drier air will take hold and help put an end to the localized snow squalls. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to fall into the middle 20s. If that’s not cold enough, Monday morning should feature low temperatures between 20° and 22° for most, especially outside of the immediate metro.

Forecast low temperatures Monday morning

The new work week will open with sunshine before clouds increase late Monday and into Tuesday. Light rain will be fast to follow.

After a break in the action Wednesday morning, temperatures will briefly spike into the lower 70s by afternoon, courtesy of a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Our attention by this time will shift to the west as an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms approaches for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Side note: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) eventually puts at least southern portions of the state in a risk of severe weather Wednesday (focused on evening into the nighttime hours). We’ll monitor that moving forward.

The front will quickly sweep through the state Thursday morning, allowing temperatures to fall through the day Thursday. In fact, temperatures will likely once again grow cold enough to allow wrap around rain to begin mixing with snow Thursday evening. Friday will likely feature scattered snow showers with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30s for highs. Additional hard freezes are on deck next weekend (20s at night).

Snow will once again fly across the region late next week

The pattern beyond next weekend continues to look colder than normal into the 10-15 day period. As long as that NAO remains negative, we won’t get excited for “stick and hold” spring conditions anytime soon…

April 5th-10th is expected to continue the cool (to colder) than normal theme.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/26/strong-storm-potential-midweek-cold-wintry-conditions-reinforce-themselves-next-weekend/

Mar 25

Still Some Winter Left In The Tank…

Updated 03.25.22 @ 7:40a Rain will mix with and change to snow after sunset with widespread snow showers and embedded squalls taking up residence across the area Saturday morning. A…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/25/still-some-winter-left-in-the-tank/

Mar 20

VIDEO: Gorgeous First Official Day Of Spring; Unsettled Midweek And Much Colder Next Weekend…

Updated 03.20.22 @ 8:48a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/20/video-gorgeous-first-official-day-of-spring-unsettled-midweek-and-much-colder-next-weekend/

Mar 18

VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Severe Potential Tonight; Looking Ahead To An Active Close To The Month…

Updated 03.18.22 @ 7:40a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/18/video-keeping-an-eye-on-severe-potential-tonight-looking-ahead-to-an-active-close-to-the-month/

Mar 16

Chill Isn’t Finished Yet…

Updated 03.16.22 @ 6:42a

While relative warmth will dominate headlines in the short-term, there’s plenty of reason not to buy into the idea that we’re finished with the chilly late winter temperatures just yet.

First, let’s start with the MJO. We’re in Phase 2 now, but what is most intriguing is the duration spent in Phase 3 (favors a pressing trough east and south similar to what image 2 shows below).

Should the MJO continue to move forward with similar amplitude then milder conditions would prevail as we get set to wrap up the month.

By that point, however, we’ll have to pay particularly close attention to the EPO and NAO phases. There are growing signals that both teleconnections will favor a return of colder than normal conditions prior to closing out the month. Couple that with the MJO movement and confidence continues to increase that we aren’t quite finished with the chill just yet. The question then becomes what takes place in April? We’ll lean into that with more detail during tomorrow’s update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/16/chill-isnt-finished-yet/

Mar 12

Significantly Milder In The Week Ahead, But Not Ready To Make Claim Spring Is Here To Stay…

Updated 03.12.22 @ 8:36a

While we’re waking up to absolutely bitter conditions this morning (especially by mid-March standards), a significant pattern change awaits this week. Temperatures this morning are deep into the 10s and include ‘chills in the subzero category.

Most across central Indiana will struggle to make it above the freezing mark today, but have no fear. Strong moderation kicks into high gear for the 2nd half of the weekend. That will lay the groundwork for our trend in the week ahead. Ridging will expand across the eastern portion of the country and result in temperatures climbing into the upper 60s by midweek.

Aside from a couple light showers Tuesday, our weather conditions look rather uneventful until late next week when a more organized storm will push better rain chances into our picture to close out the work week.

Looking ahead, you can begin seeing the reflection in the European ensemble (above) of a central and eastern trough developing, yet again, as we get set to close out March. This is likely a byproduct of an expected negative EPO and NAO late month and reason to tap the brakes on any idea of a “stick and hold” spring pattern just yet.

The idea here is that we close things out this month on a chillier and wetter note (compared to normal) and should watch for the potential of anomalies to grow even colder as we go through time- especially if we drive that NAO and EPO even deeper into the negative territory.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/12/significantly-milder-in-the-week-ahead-but-not-ready-to-make-claim-spring-is-here-to-stay/

Mar 10

VIDEO: Jab Of Late Season Arctic Air Ahead Of A Much Milder Week; Long Range Update Into Late Month…

Updated 03.10.22 @ 7:20a

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Mar 02

Winter Isn’t Done Yet…

Updated 03.02.22 @ 7:56p

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the null, or neutral, phase.

That means it’s time to start leaning heavier on the teleconnection blend. This time of the year, that encompasses all, including the NAO.

As we look over the course of the upcoming 10-14 days, we note rather strong alignment between the teleconnections favoring a return of a cold pattern. That is, of course, after the taste of spring that will continue into the day Sunday (aside from one “speed bump” tomorrow).

We note the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, is forecast negative until around the 12th and then back towards neutral. This is a cold signal for the east, relative to average.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast neutral through the bulk of the upcoming couple weeks. – Likely won’t have a significant impact on the overall pattern.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is forecast negative through the 13th before trending neutral. This should allow a southeastern ridge to remain in play to at least some degree which suggests a very active storm track into the Ohio Valley. As the colder air pushes east and runs up against the resistance from the southeastern ridge, late season wintry threats loom towards mid month.

Finally, the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) is forecast strongly negative which also implies cold should try and fight east.

With all of that said above, we note the ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) brings the trough back into the central and eastern portion of the country as we move out of the Day 1-6 period and suggests it’s far too early to think about putting away those winter clothes, or even the snow removal equipment just yet…

Upper air pattern- March 3-8
Upper air pattern- March 8-13
Upper air pattern- March 12-17

Note the colder than normal temperatures spilling back into the region next week and the week beyond.

We’re likely far from finished with snow or wintry precipitation either…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/02/winter-isnt-done-yet/

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