Category: NAO

Mar 23

Teleconnections Still Aren’t Playing Nice; Does This Change In April?

Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.

Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).

The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.

Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.

Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/teleconnections-still-arent-playing-nice-does-this-change-in-april/

Mar 07

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Discussing Timing Of Systems Next Week And Longer Range Impacts Of The MJO/ EPO…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-weekend-discussing-timing-of-systems-next-week-and-longer-range-impacts-of-the-mjo-epo/

Mar 05

VIDEO: Wintry Friday Gives Way To A Stunning Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wintry-friday-gives-way-to-a-stunning-weekend/

Mar 03

At The Very Least, On The Playing Field…

Though few and far between this winter, every attempt from the EPO to go negative has been met with wintry challenges. That’s likely going to be the case yet again next week.

Note the negative dip in the EPO next week. This is what initially grabbed our attention last week (when at that time, looking out 2+ weeks away). Modeling has produced a variety of solutions for the middle of next week for quite some time now (the consistency has been impressive), but the details will vary, and continue to do so for the next several days.

The latest GFS is bullish on the wintry threat (especially for the northern Ohio Valley), but as mentioned above, don’t get wrapped up in the details pertaining to the specifics just yet…

It should be noted, there’s ensemble support as well for the threat of a late season winter event for at least portions of the northern Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Longer range, it’ll be interesting to see if the NAO and EPO begin to trend negative. Even if the MJO doesn’t want to “play,” those 2 ingredients in tandem can create late season headaches. We note some of our long range, sub-seasonal data is trending towards a look for a colder April.

Interesting times ahead- as always.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/at-the-very-least-on-the-playing-field/

Feb 29

March 2020 Outlook…

The majority of longer range models are bullish on a much warmer than normal month of March. Below you’ll see a snap shot of the latest JMA Weeklies, European Weeklies, and CFSv2. All are in relative agreement on a warm open to meteorological spring.

The other common theme? Strong signals for wetter, to much wetter, than normal conditions.

Note the first image of the JMA Weekly data is also leaning in the direction of wetter than normal conditions.

Indianapolis March “averages” include a low of 32.8°, a high of 51.7°, 3.56″ of rain, and 2.6″ of snow.

We’re leaning in the direction of a warmer than normal, wetter than normal month, as well. The reason? You guessed it- a predominantly positive EPO and the MJO that’s expected to rumble primarily through the warmer phases for this time of year.

We’ll tackle the latter first. Note the latest MJO plot takes things through Phases 4-5. Those are notorious warm phases in March as shown by the composite 500mb analogs below.

While the MJO plot above only goes out to mid-month, there are reasons to believe things won’t get into the cold phases and that we should cycle back into the warmer phases, or potentially remain in the “null” phase.

We’ll, of course, have to monitor the EPO for negative “jabs” that may try and take place, but think we’re looking at a predominantly positive EPO throughout the month. Additionally, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looks to also remain predominantly positive and this is also a warm signal for this time of year.

Accordingly, we’re leaning towards a warm, yet wet open to meteorological spring, including temperatures that should run 1° to 3° above normal across central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/march-2020-outlook/