Apr 11
Updated 04.11.24 @ 7:39a Masters Thursday will be a wash-out up this way. Thankfully, down at Augusta, GA we’re talking about better weather- at least relatively speaking. 🙂 Additional showers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/11/video-hang-in-there-brighter-open-to-the-weekend-coming-long-range-thoughts-into-late-month/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Mar 09
Updated 03.09.24 8:14a
It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.
In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.
That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.
This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.
The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:
Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?
The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.
A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).
No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/09/long-range-report-period-opens-with-more-of-the-same-but-cooler-than-normal-for-a-change-late-month/
Feb 24
Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 6:22p With the exception of a couple cooler (can’t even call it “cold” by late February/ early March standards) days, the pattern over the upcoming couple weeks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/evening-video-mild-pattern-comes-with-heavy-rain-storm-risk-in-the-days-and-weeks-ahead/
Feb 12
Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/12/video-tracking-2-systems-in-the-week-ahead-mild-signals-continue-to-mount-longer-term/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.24 @ 6p Potential is on the increase for a period of notable cold during late-February. We look into this along with the staying power, and early thoughts on…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-potential-of-significant-period-of-cold-plant24-pattern-thoughts/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.24 @ 7:30a This week will be about as quiet and mild as it gets around these parts for early-February. Enjoy, friends. A weak frontal boundary will slip through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-enjoy-a-quiet-and-mild-week-ahead-of-a-significant-pattern-change/
Feb 04
Updated 02.04.24 @ 11:11a
The coming pattern change back to cold has been long advertised and fits the overall theme of El Nino winters. The question now centers squarely on not “if” the cold is going to return, but just “how” cold will it get? Should we spend time in Phase 8 then the door opens for another opportunity to rival the magnitude of cold we saw in January. The strongly negative AO and NAO argues for pronounced high latitude blocking to develop yet again, and likely with more staying power than our January blocking episode.
But enough about the return of below normal temperatures. What is the longer range guidance suggesting as far as the overall precipitation pattern goes? During the pattern “transition state” (late week into Week 2), we favor a more active precipitation pattern as at least (2) more organized storm systems should roll through the Ohio Valley. Specifically, we’re targeting a system 2/8 into 2/9 followed by a more organized and heavier precipitation maker in the 2/11 -2/13 timeframe.
Beyond mid-month, the majority of extended, long range forecast models highlight a drier than normal pattern returning to the picture. This is forecast to continue into the 1st half of March. A more active (wet) pattern is forecast for the Southeast. Not shocking, especially given the anticipated colder than normal regime.
This doesn’t mean snowfall will run below average, but it’s also impossible to get specific with winter storm potential more than a week out. While we’ll keep an eye on next weekend, the threat of winter weather potential will increase through the 2nd half of the month and into the 1st half of March with the colder pattern returning. The latest ensemble guidance is bullish on a snow pattern emerging during that time period.
Perhaps we’re gearing up for a busy 2nd half of the season?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/04/we-know-the-cold-is-set-to-return-but-what-about-the-precipitation-pattern-mid-feb-into-mid-march/
Feb 01
Updated 02.01.24 @ 7:45a Aside from a dry back door cold front overnight, all is quiet in the weather world, locally, but changes are on the horizon around the 10th…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/01/welcome-to-february/