We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours. So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.
We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.
The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.
Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.
As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening. We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70. Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area. The upper energy will provide the needed lift. Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.
The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.
Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.
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