Mar 21
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/21/premium-april-video-outlook/
Feb 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/18/march-outlook/
Feb 18
1.) 10-day Client discussions (Pro and Premium) and our March Outlook (Premium) has been sent to your inbox. 2.) A windy warm-up is still on track as we wrap up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/18/thursday-evening-rambles/
Jan 01
We’ll talk later today about the upcoming winter storm threat next weekend. While nothing is set in stone at this juncture, the pattern is aligning in a fashion for the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/01/winter-delayed-not-denied-updated-canadian-mjo/
Nov 28
This is a special day in the McMillan house. Iron Bowl Saturday only comes around one day a year… Needless to say, the Auburn flags have been on the vehicles since Wednesday, we’re decked out in our orange and blue, and game faces are on for this evening’s matchup. WAR EAGLE!
As we get set to flip the calendar to December, we wanted to post some latest thinking.
Let’s take a look at the latest teleconnections. As we’ve been talking, there’s a lot of “noise” in model land, including conflicting signals. The positive NAO and AO argue for warmer than average conditions, while the positive PNA suggests chillier than normal times should prevail.
We wanted to post the latest model predictions of each teleconnections, courtesy of Weatherbell.com. Additionally, courtesy of madusweather.com, here’s what each teleconnection “phase” would normally lead to in December.
NAO
AO
PNA
Simply based on the teleconnections, you would build a December forecast that would lean more warm than cold, as the short term positive AO and NAO should trump the positive PNA. As we look at the month, as a whole, the AO and NAO are forecast to trend more neutral, while the PNA remains solidly positive. Does this suggest colder air, relative to normal, would invade mid and late month? – Certainly something to watch.
Additionally, the latest Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), has begun to take a negative hit. This is after weeks of positive SOI values- relative to the base state.
While it takes a while to impact the pattern, locally, this negative hit does suggest mid and late month could be a bit more interesting from a wintry perspective. We shall see.
The CFSv2 remains very consistent on a warm month, relative to normal, particularly across the northern tier.
While we can’t post the European weeklies here, the latest run suggests colder, and stormy times around Christmas week. Now, we should also note the overall performance of the Weeklies hasn’t been as accurate compared to normal over the past few months, but it’s another interesting trend to keep an eye on.
The MJO will begin the month in Phase 3 before going into the “wheel house.” All-in-all, we don’t get a “hat tip” from the expected monthly MJO forecast, with the exception of Phase 3 to begin (warm phase).
To sum up: Long range forecasting is always a gamble. Only the good Lord knows what the future holds. That said, there are times when we feel more confident about our long range, monthly outlooks, more so than normal.
We’ll lean warmer than normal for December (+ 1.5 at IND), and this really plays into our Winter Outlook (slow start expected with the emphasis on the cold and snow mid and late winter), but that doesn’t mean we’re expecting a “boring” month. Keep in mind November has been both warmer AND snowier than normal, with a very busy 2nd half of the month.
We’ll have plenty of challenges to handle as we rumble through the month no doubt, but we expect the positive AO and NAO to trump the positive PNA to start to the month. As we progress into mid and late month, we’ll have to be on alert for potential impacts of that significant SOI hit to open the month. We’ll also keep the Weeklies in check to see if the colder, stormy look Christmas week remains. It’ll be fun, as always.
To close, here’s one more emphatic WAR EAGLE from our home to yours! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/28/iron-bowl-saturday-december-rambles/
Sep 28
Just a quick post to highlight the recent trend from the CFSv2. Note as we’ve progressed through the past couple weeks the model has been shifting the mean ridge position…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/28/cfsv2-catching-on/
Jul 27
Before we dive into what we expect for the month of August, here’s a look at where we stand so far for July (with 4 days left as of this post).
This was our July forecast upper air pattern, issued 6.29:
Here’s a look at temperature anomalies through 7.27:
While overnight lows have been running warm with all of the clouds and moisture, daytime highs have been significantly below average:
With four days left in the month, it’s already been the wettest month on record at IND. The Corn Belt, as a whole, has been quite wet month-to-date.
As we progress into August (where does time go) we think we continue in an active pattern, locally, biased cooler than normal and wetter than normal.
While modeling disagrees with the specifics in regards to the timing, most mid to long range modeling does agree on the overall idea of the hot dome (ridge) backing west and setting up shop over the southwest portion of the country early August which will put our region in (you guessed it) the favorable northwest flow for active weather. Similar to July, disturbances will ride the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest and offer up plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms. That’s not to say we’re looking at setting another record for greatest amount of rain within a month, but it is saying precipitation should be above average yet again.
From time to time the ridge will attempt to expand northeast, but we don’t think it’s potentially until the last portion of the month before the ridge has much chance to encompass our region for any staying power more than a few days. We suggest getting used to this 500mb look:
The latest NAEFS and CFSv2 highlights the cooler than normal period we should undergo early August (especially after the 5th).
The latest European Weeklies suggest there may be a window for a “calmer” regime after the 25th. That said, it’s a rather volatile pattern.
Yet another tool we’ve been keeping a close eye on the past few months has been the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) as it’s been a big help in tipping us off for prolonged wet weather. Note the consistent negative SOI:
Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think the relentless wet weather pattern “keeps on keepin’ on” as we progress through August. It’s very interesting to note the dynamics at play between the strengthening El Nino and warm northeast PAC waters… More on that, and the implications we feel for fall and winter, in the weeks and months ahead. 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/27/august-outlook-2/
Jul 05
We hope this finds you coming off an enjoyable Independence Day with friends and family! As we look at the snap shot of the opening to July we see that…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/05/sunday-morning-catch-up-2/
Jun 29
With only a few days left of June, thoughts are turning to the 4th of July holiday, getting those summer vacations taken care of before school starts back, and pre season football practice starting up.
June will finish as one of the wettest on record, and coming on the heels of a very dry May, we’re actually right where we should be from a year-to-date precipitation perspective.
Here are some highlights we’re focusing in on that’ll impact our July weather:
June will finish as a top 5-10 wettest June on record for many communities throughout our immediate region. With the wet conditions, it’s very tough to get any sort of long-lasting truly hot weather and while we’re certain to have plenty of warm, humid days during the upcoming four weeks (it is July, after all), we don’t anticipate any sort of significant heat wave. We fully expect being able to save on cooling costs when compared to normal. 
We also note a highly amplified MJO, or Madden-Julian oscillation.
In July, phases 6-7 are cool signals for our region.
We note sea surface temperatures are quite warm off the eastern seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. While this doesn’t have a direct impact on our weather here in regards to temperature, it can suggest some southeast and eastern ridging at times. When we look at the upper air pattern below, we note the region will likely be in between predominant ridge positions east and west for July. The end result for our particular part of the country would be a cooler and continued unsettled time of things for the better part of July.
*As a side note, this sort of water profile does “raise an eyebrow” for potential tropical activity in the Gulf and potentially along the east coast, and that’s something that we’ll have to keep a close eye on as we progress into the heart of the season.
We sort through a variety of data to help build our weekly (client based) and monthly upper air charts. While we can’t share all of those forecast models here directly with you (due to licensing), a combination of GFS ensemble data, CFSv2, and European weeklies have helped us build this upper air pattern for July.
This would provide continued cooler than normal times (particularly daytime highs, considering the wet ground) and a busy time tracking cold fronts and individual disturbances that will ignite frequent showers and thunderstorms.
“Average” July weather for IND includes mid 80s for highs, mid 60s for lows, and 4.5″ of rainfall. In summary, we anticipate July 2015 to run 2-3 degrees below average and precipitation to run above normal by a couple inches. We think we just keep on rolling down the tracks from the wet and active regime put into place in June. Time will tell!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/29/july-outlook/
Dec 04
There’s been a ton of conversation as of late about where this overall weather pattern is heading. Perhaps it’s the Christmas season that brings out the conversation as everyone is hoping for that cold pattern to provide a White Christmas.
While in the short-term cold will continue to dominate, we’re becoming increasingly confident of an unseasonably mild stretch of air in the mid-range period. That’ll take us up to the week before Christmas…
In the short-term, the positive PNA will continue to be the primary driver in our pattern. This will ensure a colder east through the majority of week 1 (through next Friday).
A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.
Modeling sees the cool east in week 1 and warm west- typical of a positive PNA pattern:
There are changes in the mid-range period that’ll have lovers of winter and cold frowning. Many of our long-term readers know how we use the “typhoon rule” as a good indication of what we can expect across our region 6-10 days down the road. As stated multiple times in the past (want to give credit where credit is due), we learned this from the great Joe Bastardi. For those that are new here, I’ll describe this very briefly (you can read through the archives, if you’d like, for a longer/ more detailed description). Typically when you have a recurving typhoon in the WPAC, that suggests a trough (colder pattern) across the central and eastern Lower 48. On the flip side, when you have a westward moving typhoon, that’s a good indication of eastern ridging (warmer pattern).
Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to move on a general westward trajectory.
This is a very good sign of a much milder than normal period in the mid-range (days 8-12). Modeling, in return, is going towards a warm pattern (associated ridge) week 2:
The GFS ensembles and NAEFS agree on the warmth and given what we’ve discussed above, so do we:
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us to see high temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during a day or two week 2.
Really quick and before we end- lovers of winter weather, there’s absolutely NO reason to throw in the towel. In fact, indications in the long range suggest the trough collapses into the east during the week leading up to Christmas and that could provide for all sorts of wintry “mischief” when almost all of folks are wanting snow…
Much more on that in the days ahead. Have a great night!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/04/short-term-cold-mid-range-warm/