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Category: Monthly Outlook
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-review-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-in-front-of-us/
Jan 23
Short-Term Update On Saturday’s Snow; Long Range Look Into February…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/short-term-update-on-saturdays-snow-long-range-look-into-february/
Jan 21
Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening And Looking Ahead…
January is flying by! With only 10 days left in the month, Indianapolis is running a whopping 8.2° above normal along with more than 3″ above normal in the precipitation department (unfortunately for snow lovers, this excess moisture has fallen primarily as rain, as IND is running a deficit of 5.2″ in the snowfall department).
On a broader scale, here’s a look at the current month-to-date temperature anomalies for the Lower 48 as a whole:
As a refresher, our January forecast looked like this:
The baseline of this thinking had to do with the idea we had that the MJO would roll out of the warm phases (5 and 6) and strongly into the colder phases after mid-month. Secondly, the other driver was the thought that the current SST configuration in the north Pacific would “force” a negative EPO as the winter season matured.
While the MJO did, indeed, rumble out of the warmer phases just after mid-month, the EPO has not cooperated. Furthermore, instead of the MJO tracking into Phases 8, 1, and 2, it appears it wants to go into the “null” phase to figure out its ultimate destination for the 2nd half of winter (this will be key with Feb. and March). While this doesn’t necessarily support warmth, it doesn’t offer enough ammo to fight the warm signal from the strongly positive EPO.
Now that we’re beginning to turn the page to the 2nd half of winter, there are other items to begin paying closer attention to. In addition to the EPO and MJO, some of these features include the AO, NAO, and PNA. With that said, to drive more of a consistent colder than normal theme, we need to get the EPO at least into the neutral range as some of the other ingredients noted above transition into more favorable colder phases. With a strongly positive EPO, it’ll be tough to sustain well below average temperatures.
With all of that said, all hope is not lost for winter lovers. Climatology speaking, we’re in the coldest time of the year. Even in “marginally” cold patterns, or even “warm” patterns this time of year, wintry issues can create headaches. Secondly, it’s worth paying close attention to the MJO over the next couple of weeks as some of the data wants to take things out of the null phase and transition towards the traditionally colder phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.
As it is, the next couple of weeks should present a fairly active storm track across the region. In the face of what should truly be a “torch” pattern, the saving grace (at least for fans of winter weather) has to do with the strong Hudson Bay ridge and tendency this kind of pattern has to force stormy times underneath. While far from a “slam dunk,” these kind of patterns can produce- even in the face of a strong positive EPO.
If you had to choose, would you rather have a bitterly cold and dry regime or seasonably mild with at least being on the playing field for wintry mischief over the next couple of weeks?
More in the AM, friends. Make it a relaxing evening! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening-and-looking-ahead/
Dec 30
Important To Know What Lever To Pull And When…
As another year comes to a close and the winter pattern begins to “mature,” we thought we’d do a little rambling…
This evening’s rambles have to do with the variety of “drivers” that at times like to take control of our weather pattern. You hear us use terms like the MJO, EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO (amongst others) often, but at times, these various pattern drivers can have more impact than others, and at varied times of the year.
Traditionally, if the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is highly amplified, that’s going to serve as the basis of our medium or longer range forecasts. However, if the MJO is in the null phase, other teleconnections can take control of the wheel. Sea-surface temperature configuration can give hints to the way these elements may behave during the season(s) ahead, but we caution each respective season takes on a flavor unique to it’s own. That’s what makes this business so fun, challenging, and, at times, frustrating. 🙂
It’s also important to understand when the ingredients noted above have the greatest impact on our immediate weather. We love to lean more heavily towards the NAO and AO mid-to-late winter into the spring, for instance. Case in point, a negative EPO and positive PNA can quickly trump a positive AO/ NAO this time of year, and vice-versa.
In the event you didn’t have a chance to see it Sunday, we released our January Outlook. We have a very stormy month outlined that includes cold “overwhelming” things as the month progresses. A lot of this has to do with the fact we think we see a “shake-up” with the MJO out of the warm phases and into the traditional cold phases of 8,1, and 2 taking shape during the 2nd half of the month. Additionally, we continue to believe the favorable north Pacific sea surface temperature configuration (for a cold Great Lakes and OHV) will begin to force the negative EPO/ positive PNA.
The NEW European Weeklies show the transitional time of things through the 1st half of the month, but note the building more persistent NW NA ridge during the 2nd half of the month and corresponding reflection of an eastern trough. Should the MJO be heading into Phase 8 around this time frame (and we think it will), this trough will likely correct stronger in future updates for late month.
The model sees the stormy time of things through the month and into February. (Important to note that even “warm” months this time of year can also feature above normal snow. Just see this December- nearly an inch above normal for the month). As things stand now, we see multiple opportunities for snow as January gets underway, including Saturday PM, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Make it a great evening! We’ll be back early in the morning with a fresh video update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/important-to-know-what-lever-to-pull-and-when/
Dec 29
January 2020 Outlook: Don’t Put Us In The “Winter’s Done” Camp…
The 1st half of December got off to both a colder and snowier than average start. In what’s now going to be known for a “warm” December around these parts (last 9 consecutive days have run above, to well above, average), it’ll also go down as a snowier than average month. The recent warmth has ignited chatter within (and outside) the weather community that winter may be finished. Simply put, please don’t confuse us for being in that camp.
We thought December would turn warmer than average across the eastern half of the country, but that the ‘mean’ winter pattern would begin to show itself in January. A big reason for this has to do with the sea surface temperature configuration, including the warmer than average northeast Pacific and reflection of a Modoki El-Nino. With a couple days left in December, this still holds true.
Simply put, as the winter season matures, these should work in tandem to generate a more persistent ridge across NW North America with a more sustained trough setting up across the Great Lakes region. This negative EPO pattern should carry the day from mid-late January, through February (already know where we’re leaning with our February Outlook ;-)) and into March.
Models seem to be discovering the negative EPO pattern on the horizon:
Interestingly, until then, the MJO rumbling through Phases 7-8 will likely generate wintry “fun and games” during the 1st full week of the month. This will come at the end of a relatively mild open to the month, and could set the stage for what we believe will be a situation where cold “presses” southeast and eventually overwhelms the pattern. The exception may be along the immediate Southeast and coastal areas up into the Northeast region. Here, more sustained ridging will likely be associated with the MJO getting into Phases 5-6. Elsewhere, we anticipate the negative EPO to begin to win the day. The month should be quite stormy for the Southeast into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Our official January Outlook reflects our cold, stormy thoughts.
Initially, cold will dump into the West, but likely begin to spread out as the negative EPO develops. We also note the majority of models are beginning to “tap the brakes” with respect to the overall amplitude of the MJO swinging through the warmer phases (some now even hint of keeping things in the wheelhouse or curling back into the colder phases).
More specific to central Indiana, we think the month opens milder than average before cold begins to “win out” during the 2nd week of the month. The potential of a winter storm precedes the colder shift and our short-term products will handle that situation. The back half of the month should feature more sustained cold weather. With an active storm track, we believe January will produce the 2nd consecutive month of above average snowfall across central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-2020-outlook-dont-put-us-in-the-winters-done-camp/