Category: Monthly Outlook

Feb 24

Potential Wintry Mischief Through Early March? Late Month Changes…

Top wind gusts today have reached 66 MPH at IND with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout the northern half of Indiana.

As we look ahead through the upcoming week, a couple of rather minor systems may deal light precipitation to the area, but it’s what lies ahead next weekend that’s already drawing interest. Unfortunately, modeling is trying it’s best for a “repeat” high wind event next Saturday.

The overall setup is eerily similar as a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. This setup would once again support 50+ MPH gusts.

With the pattern change underway at this point, colder air will be more readily available and backside snow may be more “meaningful” next weekend. That’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.

Winter weather enthusiasts will have a couple of weeks of at least being on the playing field for the possibility of late season accumulating snow, but it continues to look like that window closes quickly by mid-March as a true spring pattern takes hold.

A much colder than average pattern can be expected through the first half of March, including the potential of a couple opportunities for late season accumulating snow.
Once to mid-March, eastern ridging is expected to take hold of the pattern and result in a much warmer 2nd half of the month.

For those who watch the operational data with each and every update (sometimes as much as 4 times per day)- tread with caution. While significant late season winter storms can result from such a pattern change that’s underway, it’s impossible to worry about specifics in this type of regime until within 4-6 days.

It would appear the pattern would support potential “fun and games” next Saturday, the 2nd, and possibly again in the March 5th-6th time frame.

Enjoy it while you have it, lovers of winter… Signals continue to point towards a significant shift to warmer times for the 2nd half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/potential-wintry-mischief-through-early-march-late-month-changes/

Feb 16

2019 Spring Outlook…

2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook

Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19

Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.

Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:

I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).

II. Neutral NAO is expected

III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.

The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.

Drought Monitor as of 2/14/19
December 2018 Precipitation Anomalies
January 2019 Precipitation Anomalies

Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:

JMA

March
April
May

CFSv2

JAMSTEC

European Seasonal

Summary

We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019-spring-outlook/

Feb 12

We Have The Storms; Time To Add The Cold…

Over the past month, a widespread portion of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, is running close to 200% of average in the precipitation department. There’s no wonder flooding issues have resulted in spots- especially across the lower OHV region.

As we look ahead, the active storm track will persist, but there will be one key missing ingredient from the better part of the past couple of weeks and that’s more in the way of sustained cold. After reviewing some of the latest data, there’s no reason to change our ongoing idea of the transitional period (in the midst of that now) giving way towards one that will feature more in the way of “lock and load” cold in that 2.18 through 3.10 time period. We expect this period will run well below average in the temperature department and above average in the snowfall category. Snow removal clients, we recommend gearing up for a busy time of things over the upcoming few weeks.

The basis of this idea initially focused squarely on the MJO and the fact that modeling was keying in on things swinging into the favorable cold phases of 8, 1, and 2.

Taken at face value, this would be the corresponding upper air look in those respective phases:

Phase 8 (coldest)

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3 (cold begins to “back into the west and there’s at least a hint of the SE ridge returning)

As most longtime followers know, we put more stock into the NAO state during the latter winter and spring months, as this teleconnection can “trump” others during this time frame. We notice the NAO is forecast to trend negative as we progress through the back half of February.

A negative NAO will result in widespread cold this time of year:

After remaining strongly positive for the past couple of weeks, the AO is forecast to plunge negative as we progress through the remainder of February. Again, this increases confidence on a return of more sustained and significant cold potential.

It should also be pointed out that the active pattern should continue, especially considering the southeast ridge should put up some resistance over the upcoming couple of weeks. The latest ensemble products would agree in the mean upper air pattern:

With colder air overwhelming the pattern, more of these storms will be capable of producing impactful wintry precipitation over the upcoming few weeks. After storms grab the headline, attention will shift to the possibility of another significant arctic blast before the end of the month.

In the more immediate term, we continue to keep close tabs on the following dates for the potential of snow and/ or ice:

I. Friday night, 2/15 and Saturday, 2/16- southern half of Indiana

II. Sunday, 2/17

III. Tuesday night, 2/19 and Wednesday, 2/20

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/we-have-the-storms-time-to-add-the-cold/

Feb 02

Plot Thickens With The MJO…

There’s a lot of interest (no matter the time of year) in the medium to long range weather pattern. With operational modeling updating up to (4) times per day during this time range, there’s always at least some degree of fluctuation between model runs. At times, that fluctuation is more significant than others. It’s at those times when it’s more important than ever to lean on analogs, teleconnections, and other pattern drivers.

Recall that the MJO has been hyper active for the better part of this season- and has played a significant role in the winter pattern through the 1st half of this season. When the MJO features significant amplitude, it’s imperative that we pay close attention.

With that said, we note today that the models handle the current MJO pulse much differently between one another over the next couple of weeks.

For example, let’s go with the GEFS (image 1), curling the MJO into Phase(s) 6 and 7. From a temperature perspective, this is how that would be reflected at the surface

Phase 6
Phase 7

With that said, the European is more bullish heading into Phase 8 by mid-February. If correct, that opens the door for more significant (and widespread) cold.

Phase 8

We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on the MJO over the next week, or so, and hope for better overall agreement between the data. However, given a balance of current teleconnections, SSTs, and MJO, we continue to believe the pattern over the next few weeks will transition from a “battle zone” initially towards one that features cold overwhelming the region by mid-month.

There will likely be rather wild temperature swings through the first 1/3 of the month and that will help power the active pattern. At the end of the day, we expect well above normal precipitation, near-average to slightly colder than normal temperatures, and above average snowfall during the month of February here across central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/plot-thickens-with-the-mjo/

Jul 28

Time To “Buck The Trend” On The Dry Summer?

Summer has been dry, thus far, for central Indiana.  With the last month of meteorological summer on the doorstep, will that continue?

Before we discuss further, let’s check-up on precipitation anomalies at IND (through July 28th).

  • June: finished the month 0.26″ below average
  • July: 2.69″ below average, month-to-date
  • (This comes after a May that featured a 3.63″ deficit).

We have discussed the upcoming shift to a wetter regime that will develop Sunday into the first half of next week.  A Saturday evening update continues to point towards increasing rain chances arriving as we rumble into Sunday evening.  As expected, this morning’s high resolution NAM was likely a bit too excited on the initial wave of moisture and has come around to a “more realistic” idea in our opinion.

Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.

Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday.  We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week.  There will be locally heavier totals.

As we look ahead, we think the balance of the month of August will feature an upper ridge across the western portion of the country that will keep our immediate region in an active northwesterly flow aloft.  Perhaps the GEFS is seeing this best at the moment (important to note the model has been consistent with respect to run-to-run updates as of late).  This is a wet signal this time of year…

The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.

While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department.  That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/time-to-buck-the-trend-on-the-dry-summer/