Jan 01
We’ll talk later today about the upcoming winter storm threat next weekend. While nothing is set in stone at this juncture, the pattern is aligning in a fashion for the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-delayed-not-denied-updated-canadian-mjo/
Nov 10
Highlights:
The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).
Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
We still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall. Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event. Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.
Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday. As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time. This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.
As mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm. We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms. Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.
What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH). Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 
Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November. We note the SOI is actually positive right now. This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).
The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks. Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/
Oct 26
After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.
Here’s the plot line…
The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.
Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.
BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.
As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.
Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/contradiction-in-model-world/
Oct 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-shot-of-cool-air-coming-longer-range-talk/
Apr 09
After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range. Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.
Sure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).
Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.
The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.
This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period. This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.
In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/