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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-summer-like-feel-develops-talking-storm-chances-in-the-days-ahead/
May 13
“Transition” Is The Name Of The Game…
As we look ahead to late-May and early June, “transition” is the word that comes to mind when describing the overall weather pattern.
We’re going to begin pulling out of this unseasonably chilly pattern late-week and we’ll replace it with a true summer-like regime. Note the differences at 500mb between now and this weekend:
Not only will the 80s return, but oppressive dew points can be expected as well by Friday (65-70 degrees). The sweat factor will be back in full effect!
With that said, there’s reason for concern that the flip to summer may not last.
Not only do we continue to see high-latitude blocking in place, but the MJO is showing signs of rotating into Phase 1 as we inch closer to early-June. That Phase 1 this time of year is a cool one for the eastern portion of the country. Note the tendency for eastern troughiness illustrated in Image 2 below.
Perhaps ensemble data is seeing this cooler transition in the pattern on today’s 12z run:
Bottom line, confidence is high on a summer-like flip as we welcome in the weekend, continuing into early parts of Week 2, but we don’t think it’s a “stick and hold” variety of warmth. There’s growing reason to believe a flip back to cooler conditions looms before we close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transition-is-the-name-of-the-game/
May 06
More Evidence Behind Mid-May Shift To Cooler And Drier…
Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.
MJO:
The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).
PNA:
The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.
To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.
The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.
Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-evidence-behind-mid-may-shift-to-cooler-and-drier/
Mar 04
VIDEO: All-Access Long Range Update…
This evening’s long range video update discusses the pattern drivers behind the late-March weather pattern…
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Mar 03
Snow Update And Looking Ahead Towards Mid-March…
Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.
While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.
Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.
This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.
Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.
This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.
Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).
Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.
With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.
We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-update-and-looking-ahead-towards-mid-march/