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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-storms-ignite-ahead-of-sharply-colder-air-friday-pm-looking-into-early-november/
Oct 22
NEW JMA Weeklies Are In; November Preview…
This evening’s client video will have our complete long range update included within. This morning we wanted to review the latest JMA Weeklies and look ahead to at least a “hint” of what November could provide:
In short, the evolution from Week 1 to Weeks 3-4 shows the anomalous cold spreading east, but modifying from the mid-winter like conditions presently across the northern Plains by the time the chill reaches the eastern seaboard.
Week 1
Notice how the pattern is expected to remain wetter than normal during the Week 1 period.
Week 2 features the chill spreading east and a drier pattern evolving. We agree with both.
By the time we get to the Weeks 3-4 period, a northeastern ridge is shown to develop with the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West. I would expect future updates to trend warmer across the East during this time frame and, conversely, colder across the West.
By this time, of course, we’ll be into November. While our complete November Outlook will be posted next week, I believe it’ll be an average to slightly above average month from a temperature perspective, locally (after the chilly start). Some of this has to do with the expected MJO movement and likelihood for the ‘mean’ trough to be favored across the West.
More later tonight! Have a great Thursday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/new-jma-weeklies-are-in-november-preview/
Oct 08
Long Range Update: 2nd Half Of October And Open To November…
As the fall season “matures” the same MJO phase last month can lead to a much different weather pattern this month (November and so on). Note how the latest European monthly MJO model takes things through 5, 6, 7, and 8 by early November.
With greater amplitude, I’d say this would take the driver seat behind the pattern evolution into early November, but that’s not the case. Instead, we’ll want to continue to closely monitor the happenings with the EPO and PNA.
Both are pegged to move into favorable phases to bring the chill back into the East as we move through late October.
We think next week will feature a “step-down” process to a much chillier following week (Oct. 17th-23rd).
The new JMA Weeklies into the office this morning show a similar pattern evolution:
If anything, I’d expect this model to cool further over time in that Weeks 3-4 period. It’s also interesting to see the high latitude blocking shown to remain intact (that can really begin to have more of an impact downstream once to November).
Unfortunately, it’s a continued dry pattern. We’ll have more frequent frontal passages as we move through the back half of the month, but these will likely be moisture starved for the most part. It still doesn’t look like a wholesale wetter pattern will kick in until later in November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-2nd-half-of-october-and-open-to-november/
Sep 27
Big Changes Arrive Just In Time For The New Work Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-changes-arrive-just-in-time-for-the-new-work-week/
Sep 26
VIDEO: Summer Like Weekend Gives Way To The Chill Of Autumn…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-summer-like-weekend-gives-way-to-the-chill-of-autumn/