Category: MJO

Oct 26

Contradiction In Model World…

After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.

Here’s the plot line…

The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.

NegativePNA

Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.


BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.



As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.

Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/contradiction-in-model-world/

Oct 13

Another Shot Of Cool Air Coming; Longer Range Talk…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/13/another-shot-of-cool-air-coming-longer-range-talk/

Apr 09

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

ECMF_phase_51m_small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

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The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/09/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/

Mar 31

Wet, Stormy, And Warm…

Those are the words to sum up the mid to long range. While we’ll deal with a brief Easter weekend cool down, the overwhelming signals in the mid to long…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/31/wet-stormy-and-warm/

Nov 27

Catching Up And Looking Ahead…

From the IndyWx.com family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/27/catching-up-and-looking-ahead/

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