Updated 12.29.21 @ 8:17a
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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-multiple-systems-in-the-week-ahead/
Dec 28
Time To Put Up Or Shut Up…
Updated 12.28.21 @ 7:52p
We’ve laid out our ideas and there’s certainly a lot on the table, but we’re now at the point to see whether or not the ground work that’s been laid will come to fruition. The active pattern has arrived and it’s this 10-day period of transition that we continue to believe will ultimately usher in a more persistent and prolonged cold stretch in the January 10th through 31st period.
The MJO is the kicker here and looks like we’re heading into Phase 8 (a notorious phase for eastern cold in January).
Do we stall in 8 or loop back into 7 for another late month tour through this cold phase? Time will tell.
Meanwhile, the PNA continues to look like it’s heading neutral to maybe even positive down the road.
More on this and other teleconnections early in the morning as our hectic Christmas schedule transitions back to normal!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/
Dec 26
For Now, It’s A Tale Of The MJO And PNA…
Updated 12.26.21 @ 7:38a
Over the past couple of weeks, several of the teleconnections (EPO, AO, and NAO) have been in favorable phases for cold air to take up residence in our neck of the woods. However the combination of Phase 6 of the MJO (image 1 below) and a deeply negative PNA (image 2 below) have fought off any sustained or significant cold.
As we look ahead, there are changes in both of these critical pattern drivers. First, the MJO looks to continue progressing deeper into Phase 7. This is significant as today, though while officially in 7, we’re really still feeling the effects of 6. There’s a lean from guidance that Phase 8 is also within reach as we get towards mid-January, but we won’t get greedy. 🙂 If we can at least get deeper into 7, that will greatly lessen the influence of the warmth that continues to linger with Phase 6.
Note how the trough likes to settle into the eastern portion of the country during these phases.
That then brings us to the PNA. Guidance is trending things closer to neutral towards Day 10. This is significant as it would allow the southeastern ridge to at least get beaten down (not totally squashed as long as we remain negative), but certainly enough to allow the cold currently bottled up out west to bleed east.
This can be illustrated best by looking at the 500mb pattern evolution over the next couple weeks per the latest GFS ensemble below.
To summarize, while we still have warm days ahead of us, there does at least appear to be a couple trends heading in the right direction for all of those longing for colder and potentially more wintry times as we get past the new year.
Hang in there you snow lovers. It’s far too early to jump off the ship…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/for-now-its-a-tale-of-the-mjo-and-pna/
Dec 24
VIDEO: Busy Short-Term Pattern; Drivers Behind The Regime Into Mid-January…
Updated 12.24.21 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-busy-short-term-pattern-drivers-behind-the-regime-into-mid-january/
Dec 21
VIDEO: Sunshine Prevails For Now; Tracking Light Rain By Christmas Eve…
Updated 12.21.21 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-sunshine-prevails-for-now-tracking-light-rain-by-christmas-eve/