Updated 02.12.22 @ 10:07a
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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-light-snow-into-monday-bigger-storm-looms-later-this-week/
Feb 09
Initial Thoughts On Spring 2022…
Updated 02.09.22 @ 7:36a
With only a few weeks left in meteorological winter, our thoughts are beginning to shift to spring. A weak La Niña is expected to persist through spring 2022.
See the cooler than normal central and eastern PAC sea surface temperatures below, courtesy of NOAA’s Physical Science Laboratory.
The IRI/ CPC plume shows the idea of a weak Nina continuing March, April, and May (meteorological spring season).
We also like to pay close attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. As the mean trough position pulls into the west, an active storm track is likely to emerge across the Mid West. With warmer than normal SSTs in the Gulf, these storms will be able to tap into the Gulf moisture and this could help spawn bigger rain/ severe weather episodes from the mid-south into the Ohio Valley as the season matures (don’t worry snow lovers, we aren’t finished with the white stuff just yet).
The idea here is for an active spring- complete with a busy storm track through our neck of the woods, slightly above normal temperatures, and a fast start to the severe weather season (especially given those Gulf SSTs). We don’t have any reason to disagree with the overall idea that both the American climate model and European seasonal products are displaying.
Of course the MJO and NAO will play a factor in the shorter term period as spring gets underway. We’ll most certainly monitor closely.
Much more as we get closer!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/initial-thoughts-on-spring-2022/
Feb 08
Where Do We Go From Here?
Updated 02.08.22 @ 7:09a
After an unseasonably mild December the pattern flipped in January. Indianapolis finished the first month of 2022 down 3° from normal. Add in a hefty winter storm last week and the narrative this winter has changed significantly from how things opened up.
The coming couple of weeks will feature some ups and downs but will balance out colder than normal.
Where we go thereafter is an interesting question. Teleconnections shout it’s time to think spring. However, the MJO says we may want to “tap the brakes” on the spring chatter- at least until the last week of February.
After heading into the chilly Phase 3, we’ll round the turn into a milder Phase 4 late month.
The call here remains unchanged: cold dominates through the medium range (from an overall standpoint, thanks to the MJO) before a flip in the regime and a milder than average pattern to close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/where-do-we-go-from-here/
Jan 28
Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through February…
Updated 01.28.22 @ 7:32a
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Jan 20
Long Range Outlook Into Mid-February…
Updated 01.20.22 @ 10:18p
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to remain in the neutral, or “null, phase into early February. Phase 8 did the “dirty work” on helping drive a more persistent cold pattern into the eastern United States prior to moving into the null phase.
You know the drill, that means we will lean on the teleconnection blend to formulate the baseline of the upcoming 2-4 weeks. During the middle of winter, we lean heaviest on the AO, PNA, and EPO. (The NAO will be more strongly factored into the equation during the late winter and into spring).
2 out of 3 of the big teleconnection drivers favor cold to wrap up the month and open February. The one fly in the ointment? The strongly negative PNA. With that said, if we can, indeed, get the EPO and AO to come to fruition, it’s a stormy, cold signal as compared to what we saw back in December.
Thinking here is that headlines during the Weeks 1-2 period will continue to be dominated by cold before some moderation of the cold allows an increasingly stormy signal to grab the attention in the Weeks 3-4 period. Far too early for specifics, but more in the way of moisture-laden systems should emerge beyond next week.
While we still are in the cold camp to open February, pressure will be put on the pattern that should drive more eastern ridging once out of the 1st week. Accordingly, the pattern should flip towards more of a persistent above normal regime roughly between Feb. 7th and 14th. Above normal precipitation would also be favored into the 1st half of February.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-into-mid-february/