Category: MJO

Long Range Update: Spring, Is That You?

Updated 02.25.22 @ 5a

As another wintry event comes to an end, most Hoosiers are ready for spring. As we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks, there are signs that at least a “taste” of spring awaits. But, as is typically the case, there are contradicting signals.

The consensus from our big player teleconnections would suggest a warm-up (compared to normal) in the 5-10 day period, but note that the trends are favorable for cooler than normal temperatures thereafter.

Ensemble guidance shows the transition over the upcoming couple weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) argues that eastern warmth should come back with a vengeance towards mid-March after the potential of a brief cooler setback. We note guidance is in better alignment taking things into Phase 5 and that should result in an expanding eastern ridge between the 10th and 15th.

The JMA Week 2 500mb pattern looks pretty good to me based on the MJO activity. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air is likely to dump into the West and we’ll have ti monitor thing the pattern drivers closely once passed mid-month for the possibility of colder air to ooze east.

The transitional theme to the overall pattern should promote wetter than normal conditions over the upcoming 14-16 days as a whole.

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VIDEO: Tracking (2) Systems Next Week…

Updated 02.19.22 @ 7:45a

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VIDEO: Spring Fling Early Next Week, But A Lot Of Winter Is Left In The Tank…

Updated 02.17.22 @ 7:35a

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VIDEO: Significant Storm Delivers A Wide Range Of Impacts; MJO Influence On The Longer Range…

Updated 02.16.22 @ 7:21a

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MJO; Teleconnections Show The Way…

Updated 02.13.22 @ 7:42a

Only a couple weeks “officially” remain in meteorological winter. Perhaps it’s appropriate that the pattern is hinting at a vastly different look in the 10-15 day period (much warmer), and for good reason:

Perfect alignment between the MJO and teleconnections.

The MJO is forecast into Phase 4 as we put a wrap on February. Analogs show the eastern ridge that typically takes up residence in Phase 4.

All of the primary teleconnections (including the NAO- remember it’s now time to start keying in on the NAO) are in phases that also argue for above average temperatures.

To no surprise, modeling sees a warm, wet (compared to normal, of course) stretch ahead to close February and open March.

European ensemble

GFS ensemble

Given the blue print laid out above, I’d personally lean more towards the GFS solution (more widespread above normal conditions) over the Euro.

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