Nov 09
Updated 11.09.24 @ 8:45a Most, if not all, of the daytime will remain free of any precipitation, but that will change after sunset as scattered showers roll across central Indiana.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-timing-out-rain-and-potential-of-more-significant-chill-for-a-change/
Nov 06
Updated 11.06.24 @ 5:16p Averages really start to fall off during the month of November. Normal highs in the upper 50s to open the month crash quickly to an average…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-mild-times-holding-firm-any-change-on-the-horizon/
Nov 04
Updated 11.04.24 @ 12:21p A cold front will slide through the state tomorrow night. While central and western parts of the state are dealing with showers today, a more widespread,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-timing-out-rain-in-the-week-ahead-and-mjo-implications-longer-term/
Nov 02
Updated 11.02.24 @ 6:30a This morning is starting off colder than normal (average low is 39° on 11/2) for a change as we wake up to freezing conditions across most…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-overall-milder-than-normal-times-continue-as-a-whole-looking-ahead-to-when-this-may-change/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/