Category: MJO

Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies
Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/

Jan 29

“Steady As She Goes:” No Need To Change Ongoing Ideas Of Milder Than Normal Open To February Followed By Cold, Wintry Pattern Thereafter…

Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:42p

Let’s get to the headline right out of the gate: Winter is far, far from over. While we don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing long range pattern ideas, I did want to touch on the overall regime for February into March during this evening’s discussion.

Subsequently, we’re also continuing to lean into the milder than normal pattern that will be with us as we close January and navigate the first 1/3 of February. Today’s medium range model data backs this up well.

Day 1-5

Days 5-10

Days 10-15

Overall, the next couple of weeks should also result in a drier than normal pattern, locally.

It should come as no surprise given the teleconnection suite (all in warm phases, with the exception of the PNA which will result in cooler anomalies at times across the Southeast region). We note these same teleconnections shifting towards the colder phases around, or just before the 10th of February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation also is in the notorious warm phases.

Before 2/10, any cold will be fleeting and nothing significant given the time of year. Overall, an unseasonably mild pattern will dominate.

Post 2/10, we’re going to see a shift towards colder times. A lot of this has to do with the alignment amongst the teleconnections. Throw in the MJO heading into the frigid (for this time of year) Phase 8 and you have the potential to eventually see the pattern deliver the magnitude of cold we just saw come late February. (In case you missed it, we already set the bar on the type of cold we envision developing late February).

Given the NAO heading into the tank by this point, there’s fear this particular round of cold would likely have more staying power than it’s January predecessor. “Phase 8 MJO WITH a strongly negative NAO?” Look out below…

Interestingly, the NEW European Weeklies are going right to this set-up and perhaps the most bullish I’ve seen over a 30-day period from this distance. Winter is far, far from over, indeed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/steady-as-she-goes-no-need-to-change-ongoing-ideas-of-milder-than-normal-open-to-february-followed-by-cold-wintry-pattern-thereafter/

Jan 22

VIDEO: Short And Long Term Ideas- Any Thoughts Of Winter’s Demise Premature In Our Opinion…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-and-long-term-ideas-any-thoughts-of-winters-demise-premature-in-our-opinion/

Jan 19

Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through The Remainder Of Winter; Open To Meteorological Spring…

Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/

Jan 12

Prolonged Period Of Bitterness, But A Change Is On The Horizon…

Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p

The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.

But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.

After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.

The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!

We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/prolonged-period-of-bitterness-but-a-change-is-on-the-horizon/