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Category: Memorial Day weekend
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May 16
VIDEO: Gorgeous Saturday; Storms Return Tonight And Looking Ahead Towards Memorial Day Weekend…
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May 15
Long Range Update: Heat Comes In Spurts, But Still A Long Way Off From Sustained Warmth…
After a chilly May featuring all-time record cold to begin the month, the flip to warmer air has been welcome by many over the past 24 hours. This warmer regime will continue into the weekend before getting beaten back next week. This is due to a closed off upper level low that will actually manufacture it’s on chill across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during this time frame.
Sometimes it can be like pulling teeth to get these kind of features to leave and models can struggle (case in point, this upper low was originally modeled to be located over Nova Scotia- NOT the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic)!
Nevertheless, we believe the one time expected surge of heat next week will only be a scenario of “delayed, not denied.” By the time we head into Memorial Day weekend, we continue to believe legitimate summer warmth will move in (85°-90° stuff).
The new CFSv2 agrees with the European ensembles above.
Longer range (last few days of May and early June) will depend heavily on what goes on with a combo of the MJO and EPO/ PNA. 2 of 3 of these signals argue for cooler air to return during that time period.
We shall see how it plays out, but our official lean is towards the cooler side of things after the Memorial Day heat. From a precipitation perspective, after the short-term wet period, overall dry conditions are set to return as we wrap up May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-heat-comes-in-spurts-but-still-a-long-way-off-from-sustained-warmth/
May 12
Major Flip On Deck; Discussing Longevity…
Indianapolis is running a whopping 8° below normal month-to-date. We’ve set new daily and all-time records already this month for the cold. Note the vast nature of this May chill.
If you’re not a fan of the late season chill, hang in there, as a major flip in the pattern awaits. We alluded to this possibility in our May Outlook and it continues to look like a rather abrupt change is a couple of days away. While we’re dealing with frost this morning in spots across east-central Indiana, it’s looking more and more likely that the first true summer-like surge of air for the season arrives Thursday into the weekend. Warmth will be accompanied by a significant uptick in humidity levels.
The Week 2 period looks warmest, relative to average, and should feature at least a couple of days with highs approaching the 85°-90° mark.
While most data maintains a warmer pattern to close the month, there are a couple of items to pay close attention to as we try and understand the longevity of said warmth.
- The MJO is forecast to remain “bottled up” in the wheelhouse through the next couple of weeks. Thereafter, there are indications that the MJO might become more amplified and it’ll be important to keep an eye on what phase(s) it’ll move through as we get set to close May/ open June.
2. The PNA is forecast to take a negative dip which supports the coming flip to warm. However, recent ensemble data is bullish on a move towards a positive (some data shows even strongly so) state around or just after Memorial Day. This would suggest the window of warmth may be limited in duration. Simply based on looking at the chart below, one could build a case for a cool open to meteorological summer.
Finally, on the precipitation front, a wetter pattern is anticipated to accompany the warm change, but longer range data points towards this being only a temporary wetter regime. In fact, recent models are beginning to agree on a dry close to May/ open to June.
Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/major-flip-on-deck-discussing-longevity/
May 11
From One Extreme To The Other…
The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.
Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.
A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!
The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.
For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.
We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.
Stay tuned.
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