Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

Long Range Report: Active Pattern As We Head Into And Through April…

Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a

Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.

The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3/4

To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.

Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.

Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.

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VIDEO: Weekend Sunshine; Tracking 2 Storm Systems In The Week Ahead And Looking At The Early-April Pattern…

Updated 03.23.24 @ 10:51a A quiet weekend will turn more active as we open the new work week. We’re tracking this system and another storm late in the week. Both…

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VIDEO: Light Rain Returns Friday; Cooler, Wetter Than Normal Pattern Anticipated O/ The Next 2 – 3 Weeks…

Updated 03.21.24 @ 7a The area will receive a glancing blow from our late week low pressure “tag team” that will deliver light rain Friday (most areas will be under…

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Long Range Report: Cooler, Drier Week 1 Turns Wetter To Close March; Open April…

Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a

Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).

We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).

Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.

Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.

What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).

The JMA also sees the wetter regime.

This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.

Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.

Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…

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Long Range Report: Period Opens With More Of The Same, But Cooler Than Normal For A Change Late Month…

Updated 03.09.24 8:14a

It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.

In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.

That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.

This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.

The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:

Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?

The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.

A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).

No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.

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