Long Range Report: Looking Ahead To May…

Updated 04.25.24 @ 7:15a

While we have a couple of storm systems to track in the upcoming week, the majority of the heavy rain and severe weather will remain confined to areas west of here- mostly throughout the Plains and into the upper Mid West. In short, the immediate-term has “more bark than bite.”

The overall long range look reflects a lack of any sort of stagnant regime, locally, and it also doesn’t show that we’ll have to endure much in the way of “extremes” over the upcoming 3-4 week period from a temperature or precipitation perspective. – A good sign as Plant24 hits its true stride.

Week 1

The JMA and European are in agreement that this period will feature warmer than normal temperatures and near average rainfall. Of note, we’re tracking storm systems that will impact our weather Friday, Saturday, and again Monday and Tuesday.

Week 2

We note guidance getting more bullish on an East Coast trough beginning to develop during this time period. While likely averaging out slightly above normal as a whole in Week 2, I’d also plan on a few days of cooler air (type of stuff that could send us to around 40° at night and low-mid 60s during the day) around the Day 8 – 10 time frame. The period should once again feature timely rains, but nothing far off from the average.

Weeks 3-4

It’ll be interesting to watch what the European Weeklies do later today during this time frame, but the JMA is highlighting a more unsettled (wetter) pattern for now in the middle to latter part of May. Near to slightly below average temperatures and widespread above normal rains are being shown. (We’ll update this period after reviewing today’s European Weeklies).

VIDEO: Storms Rumble In Tonight; Long Range Musings Into May…

Updated 04.18.24 @ 4:34a

The day will start off quiet, but won’t end that way. We’re monitoring the threat of strong to severe storms later this evening, continuing into and through the overnight hours. The good news? All of these will be off to our east prior to heading out the door to work or school Friday morning. Then we can concentrate on a refreshingly cool weekend with sunshine returning.

VIDEO: Mother Nature Is Making Us Earn It Saturday; Long Range Pattern Remains Active/ Stormy…

Updated 04.12.24 @ 7:48a Today will certainly be another less than ideal weather day across central Indiana, but the trade off for what awaits Saturday will be worth it. You’ve…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

VIDEO: Hang In There- Brighter Open To The Weekend Coming; Long Range Thoughts Into Late Month…

Updated 04.11.24 @ 7:39a Masters Thursday will be a wash-out up this way. Thankfully, down at Augusta, GA we’re talking about better weather- at least relatively speaking. 🙂 Additional showers…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.