Light At The End Of The Tunnel? Think Again.
March sure has been a wild month! Indianapolis is running close to 4° below average on the month with around one foot of snow. The highlight was obviously the 10.2″ of snow that fell last Saturday.
Largely this was driven by the return of blocking- something that has been missing most of this winter and, for that matter, the past couple of winters. Note the prolonged, sustained negative NAO. As we’ve written in the past, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, is the “king” this time of year. In late winter and spring, negative NAO phases will result in cold periods, even in the face of potentially warmer signals from other, less dominant, teleconnections.
As we look ahead, we don’t really see any significant changes with the forecast NAO into mid-April.
To no surprise, the pattern remains colder than average over the next couple of weeks, overall.
With all of the cold around, it should also be no surprise that at least the threat of additional accumulating snow is on the table. In fact, an item of “interest” will eject out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the Plains and eastern half of the country in the 8-10 day period. It’s far too early for specifics, but at least the potential of accumulating snow is present next weekend across the Ohio Valley.
A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:
From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana. However, we know March storms can “surprise.” Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week. 🙂 Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas. At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.