Category: Long Range Discussion

Feb 18

Taste Of Spring To Close February And Open March: Monitoring Storm Potential…

Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a

Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows clear skies across our region and the fresh snowpack.

The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.

After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.

The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.

In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.

Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.

Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.

As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/

Feb 15

VIDEO: Snow Overspreads The Region Friday; Fresh Medium-Long Range Thoughts…

Updated 02.15.24 @ 9:42p

Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.


A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.

More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-friday-fresh-medium-long-range-thoughts/

Feb 12

VIDEO: Tracking 2 Systems In The Week Ahead; Mild Signals Continue To Mount Longer Term…

Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-2-systems-in-the-week-ahead-mild-signals-continue-to-mount-longer-term/

Feb 10

Spring; #Plant24 Outlook…

Updated 02.10.24 @ 7:20a

Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:

  • El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
  • Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
  • Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.

Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.

This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.

Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.

European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through May
JMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May

From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.

European seasonal temperature anomalies March through May
JMA temperature anomalies March through May

IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:

  • Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
  • Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.

Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/spring-plant24-outlook/

Feb 09

Friday Evening Rambles…

Updated 02.09.24 @ 5p

Scattered showers/ embedded thunder overnight, opportunity for slushy, light snow accumulation, and long range rumblings highlight this evening’s rambles…

I. A thin line of broken showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will push southeast across central IN during the predawn hours Saturday. More widespread, concentrated rain and embedded thunder will work across the southern 1/3 of the state overnight and early Saturday morning. Across central IN, rainfall amounts of 0.10″ to 0.25″ will be possible with this activity with more widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ totals across the southern portion of the state.

The front will pass southeast across the region predawn Saturday with a northwest wind shift taking place from northwest to southeast prior to sunrise Saturday. Cooler (not cold by February standards) air will flow into the region over the weekend.

II. The second piece of energy that will lead to a significant rain and associated severe weather episode across the South and a big ole snowstorm for our friends across the Northeast early next week, still appears to mostly bypass our immediate region. It’s possible southern portions of the state (mostly south of Indianapolis) could see a light, slushy snow accumulation, but I think even in these areas the 1″, via today’s EPS is too “generous.” The reason? Snowfall rates, marginal temperatures, and the unseasonably warm ground. Further east, this will be a much different animal with a notable snowstorm anticipated for the central Appalachians into southern New England. Regardless, at least locally, Monday evening into Monday night would be the period to watch for the potential of the slushy wet snow accumulation potential.

III. The upcoming week will undoubtedly be much cooler than what we’ve grown accustomed to from February ’24 so far, but nothing overly cold for this time of year by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll watch for the threat of a couple of clipper systems that could deliver mixed rain/ snow or light snow, but significant snow makers aren’t on the horizon in the week ahead as of this evening. We’ll continue to closely monitor.

The opportunity is present for a shot of colder air behind one of these clippers next weekend.

IV. The reason for “pause” this morning in the long standing idea here of a return to prolonged colder than normal weather into March came from a positive trend in the EPO and what at least appears (from this distance) any sort of MJO venture into Phase 8 will be very brief. If (still a bigger “if” than we prefer) we don’t keep that EPO negative and the MJO goes into the neutral phase, even a negative NAO won’t be able to impact the area with notable cold. Can the other players on the field at least keep the period closer to average or slightly cooler than normal? Yes, but any prolonged or significant cold would be highly unlikely if the EPO/ MJO combo doesn’t come to fruition. You better believe we’ll be watching trends carefully over the weekend into early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-evening-rambles/