Category: Long Range Discussion

Sunday Morning Rambles: Talking About Icing Monday Evening, Wet Week Ahead, And Potential Of A Wintry Return…

Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a

This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.

While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.

The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.

Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.

The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.

Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).

Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.

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Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through The Remainder Of Winter; Open To Meteorological Spring…

Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a

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Prolonged Period Of Bitterness, But A Change Is On The Horizon…

Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p

The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.

But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.

After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.

The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!

We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.

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VIDEO: Long Range Manifesto And Fresh Thoughts On Friday/ The Weekend…

Updated 01.11.24 @ 6:12p Busy times remain in the good ole forecast office! This evening we dig into not only new long range thoughts but look deeper into the latest…

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VIDEO: Memorable Winter Pattern The Next Couple Weeks; Longer Range Musings…

Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…

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