Jul 18
We write this tonight with an anomalous pattern in place. Here we are in late July and we’re watching an organized storm system (non-tropical) roll through the Deep South while…
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Jul 17
Mid July through early August typically represents the greatest stretch of “lazy,” (yes, even in the meteorological community we can usually bank on a little down time this time of year) hazy, hot, and humid days throughout central Indiana. Average highs are in the middle 80s with average lows in the middle 60s. Finally, for the most part, organized storm systems of the spring and early summer are not as frequent as thoughts begin to shift to the busier, colder times ahead of fall and the upcoming winter. That’s certainly not been the case this year. And, as we look ahead, busy times will continue as we wrap up July and head into August- biased continued cooler than normal.
Let’s take a look at July so far. Through the 17th, we’re running significantly cooler than normal:
While the current chilly spell (labeled as “Autumn in July”) begins to give way to warmer, muggier times ahead, our sights are already looking ahead to the next round of cooler than normal air towards late next week.
Before we get into that, let’s take a look at some of the short range model data. Most of this data agrees a significant ridge of high pressure, and associated heat dome, will take up residence across the western half of the country. Initially we’ll see “fingers” of heat attempt to come northeast, but we caution these hot attempts will likely be thwarted from becoming what they otherwise would be. While it’s possible a 90 degree day could come out of this next week, we still see no reason to believe any sort of prolonged heat is in our future. Additionally, we’ll have to keep abreast of potential thunderstorm complexes moving southeast in what can be a challenging northwest flow pattern next week. As it stands now, best rain chances will arrive Wednesday.
Note how the GFS and European ensemble data is in agreement on the developing significant ridge central and west.
This will aid in moderating temperatures back to where we would normally expect them this time of year along with plenty of humidity. That said, the hottest air associated with this pattern will remain to our west. As stated above, we’ll have to keep an eye out for potential “surprise” thunderstorm complexes riding the periphery of the hot dome.
After a cold front provides increased shower and thunderstorm chances mid to late week, model data is keying on yet another unseasonably cool push and associated trough by Day 10.
The Canadian NAEFS also sees the developing late July cool.
Moral of this story is that while we’ll warm back to normal levels over the weekend into next week, overall model agreement leads to a higher than normal confidence in the mid to long range of a developing cool pattern yet again. We’ll have to handle rain and storm chances on a more short-term basis. Needless to say, these are no ordinary “dog days…” Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-arent-any-ordinary-dog-days/
Jun 24
The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week. That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.
In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods. This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.
In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far. Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.
There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.
The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.
The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead. Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3. Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.
To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +. The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/
Jun 16
Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend! Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off. That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.
Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:
As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks. As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date. A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur. This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.
While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June. We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit. Much more later! BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-weather-rambles-2/
Jun 12
Good morning! We’ll have your full, updated, 7-day forecast posted here later this evening! We wanted to discuss a few of the weather highlights as we move forward the next week, and beyond!
1. A cold front will move through tonight and early Friday. A shower or thunderstorm is possible as the front moves through, but won’t be a huge deal. Best rain/ storm chances appear to be across eastern portions of the region.
2. Temperatures and humidity values will be at levels simply as pleasant as you can ask for this time of year Friday and Saturday. Upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Hint of fall before true summer even begins?! I’ll take it!
3. Heat and humidity builds next week with ridging, but we continue to think this is a transient type pattern and seeds are already being planted for cooler times once past June 20th. A couple days of 90 degree heat are possible mid to late next week. Furthermore, with all of the moisture in the ground, humidity levels will be oppressive. In other words, it turns hot and humid next week, but nothing too unusual for this time of year. Like so many other times it’s tried to get hot this year, it seems as if the seeds for cooler are already being seen.
Lets examine some of the mid to long range model data. We’ll start with a look at the 500 mb pattern off the GFS reforecast product from the Physical Science Division (PSD). Note the riding that develops next week, but also note the trough and associated cooler pattern showing up just after the 20th.
The GFS ensembles show the warmth (they still aren’t representing the warmth to the magnitude in which we’re going to see in my opinion, but you get the overall idea) next week and the coming cooler pattern around, and after, the 20th, relative to normal.
The Canadian NAEFS product is next, outlining the temperature anomalies 6/20-6/27. Note the warmer temperatures relative to normal (represented by the reds and orange hues) shifting off the east coast and the cooler temperatures (blue shades) developing and spreading east through the center of the country.
Finally, let’s look at the CFSv2 weeks 3-4 product. Again, we admit this model can be erratic at times, but we feel like it has a good handle on the coming pattern, as well, in this particular case. The greens show the cooler than average pattern anticipated as we go through the back 7-10 days of June.
As we close, it should also be noted that the overall active and wetter than normal pattern looks to continue as we put a wrap to the month of June. We’re already off to a near-record pace for June rainfall across central Indiana and while we’ll have some dry days, the overall theme remains an active and wet one in the weeks ahead.
Much more with your full 7-day forecast later this evening!
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