While we continue to believe more of a wholesale pattern change awaits early-mid April, we still have a long way to go before we can shake the overall wintry pattern. When the pattern does flip, the potential is certainly there (as alluded to last weekend) for a rather “turbulent” time, including an uptick on the severe front.
Before we get to April, we still have a prolonged period of overall colder than normal conditions to deal with. We don’t have any changes to the idea the northern Plains are ground-zero for coldest anomalies, but, it’ll also be plenty chilly, locally, as well.
A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:
Potential of freezing rain, especially across the northern half and northeastern parts of the state Friday night into the morning hours Saturday.
Secondly, rain arriving on the scene Monday that will transition to wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning, as illustrated by the European model below.
From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana. However, we know March storms can “surprise.” Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week. 
Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas. At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.
On a more positive note, it still looks like we’ll enjoy plentiful sunshine tomorrow and after a raw, damp start to our St. Patrick’s Day, drier times should win out Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
Much more later!
It should be no surprise that the GEFS 5-day temperature anomaly shows widespread below normal air centered on March 22nd.
This doesn’t mean brief surges of warmth, originating in the southern Plains, can’t shoot into the Ohio Valley for a couple of days. Perhaps we’ll “luck out” and enjoy a briefly milder time for St. Patrick’s Day. This does, however, mean that overall we have a long, long way to go before “stick and hold” spring can arrive, locally, and the balance of the upcoming 2-3 weeks looks colder than average.
Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.
All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.
We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.
Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March. We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.
Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March. With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold. Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.
While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month. Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events. In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…