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Category: Long Range Discussion
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Aug 20
Heavy Storms For Some Tonight And Looking Ahead…
A warm front is draped across the state this evening. At the same time, surface low pressure is spinning across north-central MO with a trailing cold front entering IL. This evening, a warm and moist airmass continues to advect into central Indiana.
As we type this update, widely scattered thunderstorms are impacting areas from Lafayette to the northeast side of Indianapolis. A more organized complex of thunderstorms is firing to our southwest- from south-central IL to southeastern MO and into AR. This is ahead of the cold front.
Looking at forecast radar products, the majority of data brings a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through central parts of the state around 9p to 10p, continuing into the overnight and predawn hours.
9p forecast radar
11p forecast radar
2a forecast radar
5a forecast radar
With high precipitable water values in place (approaching 2″ through tonight), locally heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms through the night. We expect widespread additional rainfall tonight of 0.50″ to 1″ with locally heavier amounts. A few embedded strong to severe storms are also possible tonight with the primary concern being damaging straight line winds and large hail, but an isolated quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out. We suggest ensuring your weather radio is set with the ‘alert mode’ on tonight.
As we flip the page, a few scattered showers will remain in our forecast Tuesday PM before a much cooler and drier air mass invades Tuesday evening- continuing into Friday morning. Several central Indiana neighborhoods will dip into the 40s Thursday and Friday mornings.
2a forecast temperatures Thursday.
Enjoy the cooler air while you’ve got it, as a developing heat wave will engulf much of the region as we close the month and open September. Needless to say, despite the unofficial end to summer just around the corner, there’s still plenty of summer left in the tank. This is the type pattern that can produce an extended stretch of lows around 70° and highs around 90°.
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Aug 07
VIDEO: No Looking Back On The Active, Wet Pattern…
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Jul 31
Summer Feel Returns…
The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards. 80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool. Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.” Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.
After a warm open to the month, July has taken on a significantly cooler side as of late: Graphic courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center
As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂
Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period. This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.
GEFS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
EPS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week. Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity. In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule. Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°. While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).
Highs will top out a couple degrees either side of 90 this weekend. Graphic courtesy of weathermodels.com
While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional. The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…
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Jul 28
Time To “Buck The Trend” On The Dry Summer?
Summer has been dry, thus far, for central Indiana. With the last month of meteorological summer on the doorstep, will that continue?
Before we discuss further, let’s check-up on precipitation anomalies at IND (through July 28th).
- June: finished the month 0.26″ below average
- July: 2.69″ below average, month-to-date
- (This comes after a May that featured a 3.63″ deficit).
We have discussed the upcoming shift to a wetter regime that will develop Sunday into the first half of next week. A Saturday evening update continues to point towards increasing rain chances arriving as we rumble into Sunday evening. As expected, this morning’s high resolution NAM was likely a bit too excited on the initial wave of moisture and has come around to a “more realistic” idea in our opinion.
Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.
Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday. We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week. There will be locally heavier totals.
As we look ahead, we think the balance of the month of August will feature an upper ridge across the western portion of the country that will keep our immediate region in an active northwesterly flow aloft. Perhaps the GEFS is seeing this best at the moment (important to note the model has been consistent with respect to run-to-run updates as of late). This is a wet signal this time of year…
The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.
While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department. That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…
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