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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-what-does-the-2nd-half-of-july-have-in-store/
Jul 13
Barry Moves Inland; Pattern Progression Into Late July…
Tropical Storm Barry will make landfall today along the central LA coast as a strong tropical storm or hurricane (further strengthening is likely before making landfall later today). Gusts along the LA coast already this morning have reached 81 MPH. Once inland, the biggest concern with Barry’s remnants will come from a heavy rain and flooding situation. The heaviest rainfall will fall to the east of the center of circulation, encompassing central and eastern LA, western MS, eastern AR, and into western TN.
While Barry’s moisture will get into central Indiana early next week, we continue to believe the steady, heavier rainfall will remain across southern portions of the state. Overall, we don’t see any reason to alter our ongoing idea of where the heaviest axis of rain will set up shop. Tuesday into Wednesday appears to be the wettest period for the Ohio Valley from Barry. It’s possible a good portion of southern IN into central and southern OH receives 1″ to 2″ of rain with locally heavier totals during this time period. Understanding we’re talking about tropical remnants still roughly 72-84 hours away, some additional tweaking is likely to the forecast rainfall numbers.
Once Barry’s remnants exit to the east, the heat will be the big story for the 2nd half of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s can be expected as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region.
As we look beyond next week, the pattern should promote the axis of the ridge retrograding west. This would put the Ohio Valley in a more active northwest upper air flow, resulting in a backing off of the extreme heat and better rain/ storm chances as we progress through the last week of the month.
More later this afternoon with our video update! Enjoy your Saturday morning, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/barry-moves-inland-pattern-progression-into-late-july/
Jul 11
VIDEO: Tropical Remnants Set To Impact The Area Next Week? Looking At Updated Weeks 3/4 Data…
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Jul 10
VIDEO: Tropical Remnants Impact Parts Of The OHV Next Week…
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Jul 09
Tuesday Morning Rambles: Potential Tropical Impacts Down The Road And Renewed Heatwave Claim Headlines…
I. Another quiet, pleasant mid-summer day is on tap thanks to high pressure. Though very warm, humidity will remain low today. We should add another 90 degree day to the books later this afternoon.
II. A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and we expect a couple of lines of thunderstorms to move across central Indiana during the day. The first line will likely be in a weakening state as it approaches central Indiana around lunchtime tomorrow, however, we expect a second line of showers and t-storms to move through the heart of the state tomorrow evening.
The Storm Prediction Center includes northwest IN in a ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather Wednesday.
III. While dry conditions (and cooler temperatures) will return here for late week and into the first half of the weekend, all eyes by this time will be centered on soon-to-be Barry. Conditions still seem favorable (sea surface temperatures and upper level wind environment) for a disturbance currently over SW GA to strengthen into a named tropical system over the northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours.
While confidence remains low concerning potential inland impacts from the eventual remnants of Barry (always the case with tropical systems), there seems to be an opportunity for two paths as of now.
“Path A” would essentially be a scenario where Barry gets trapped under an upper level ridge to the north, resulting in raining himself out over Texas next week. “Path B” would curl Barry north and northeast into the OHV, spreading a swath of heavy tropical rains well inland. Stay tuned.
IV. The other headliner will be a return of significant heat next week. While Barry may (or may not) have a say in cooling us down late next week, there will be a renewed stretch of 90 degree warmth that develops Sunday into at least the middle of next week. Longer range data continues to trend hotter and we’ll have a look at the updated European Weeklies later today or Wednesday.
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