Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

June 2020 Outlook: “Transient” Is The Word…

The first month of meteorological summer is here and right on cue, we’re expecting a significantly warmer pattern to emerge. Does that set the tone for the month as a whole? In the words of Lee Corso: “not so fast my friend.”

After a refreshing weekend the first week of June, overall, is expected to be dominated by a MUCH warmer and more humid pattern. This is courtesy of an upper level ridge building east over the region (in response to the MJO moving into Phase 1, along with a strongly positive EPO).

Deeper into the month, it’ll be tough to hold onto this warm, humid regime as the EPO trends negative and the MJO shows signs of rumbling into Phase 2. In the month of June, Phase 2 delivers cooler than normal temperatures into our portion of the country, along with a good chunk of the East.

Sure enough, the latest European computer model is seeing this cooler trend developing by Week 2:

Given the longer range data, there’s reason to believe the cooler than normal temperatures will also be transient (similar to the warmth to open the month). Overall, drier than normal conditions are expected through the first month of meteorological summer. We’ll have to keep close tabs on where the drier pattern sets up as this can “feedback” on itself the deeper into summer we go.

Given the MJO and EPO forecasts, there’s reason to buy into a “transient” pattern that June should dish out. After a drier than normal 1st half of the month, precipitation should average out close to normal by month’s end. The one exception to this will have to do where remnant tropical moisture tracks inland in the Week 2 time period. From this distance, there are 2 camps pertaining to the potential track of soon-to-be Cristobal: TX/ LA coastline or FL panhandle. The next 7-10 days will be interesting. We’d recommend getting used to an ever-changing temperature pattern in the upcoming 3-4 weeks that should balance out close to average for our neck of the woods by month’s end.

Our official June Outlook looks like this:

Client, Long Range Discussion, Monthly Outlook

Thursday Morning Rambles: Tropical Air Gets The Boot; Eyeing A Warm Stretch Of Weather Through The 1st Half Of June?

Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.

The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.

Most central Indiana neighborhoods can expect an inch of rain today with locally heavier totals.

The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.

Cool and refreshing Canadian air will arrive just in time for the weekend.

Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.

Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.

The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.

We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.

Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Plant ‘20, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Long Range Update: Warmth Once Again Takes A Back Seat To Cooler Times; Drier Open To June?

With meteorological summer looming around the corner, will the pattern follow suit? At least in the short-term, warmth and humidity will have things feeling very much like summer, but this warmer regime likely won’t hold. The culprit? You guessed it- developing negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO re-amplifying with eyes sets on the cooler phases to open June.

After a chilly May (month-to-date), most will welcome this weekend’s heat and humidity with open arms! This is courtesy of finally kicking the “cut off” low to the curb and replacing its’ influence with an upper level ridge. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the short-term, but coverage will be of the “splash and dash” variety- very typical of summer-time!

This warmer regime will be fleeting as a combination of ingredients align in a manner to drive cooler, more refreshing air back into the region as we close May and open June. Most notably this is being driven by a negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO set to roll through Phases 7 and 8 during said period.

Accordingly, we note the models shifting things up quite significantly as we go into the Week 2 time period (May 29th-June 4th).

The cooler regime will likely also come with a drier overall pattern to open June, at least compared to average.

EPO, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, Memorial Day weekend, MJO, Plant ‘20, PNA, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm