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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-long-range-thoughts-to-wrap-up-november-and-looking-ahead-to-december/
Nov 14
What A Start To November; Looking Ahead…
Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.7° below average through the 1st (13) days of the month. We’ve broken records for cold and snow so far, including Monday’s snow at 2.8″, record lows (8° on Tuesday and 9° low on Wednesday, and record low maximums (21° high on Tuesday).
Shades of November ’14 come to mind with the way this month has started:
As we look ahead, temperatures are expected to remain below, to significantly below, average through the 2nd half of the month overall.
From a storm standpoint, we’re only expecting a couple of fairly weak systems over the upcoming week. A disturbance will scoot across central Indiana Sunday with a few light showers and again Tuesday. Neither is expected to provide significant moisture.
Things begin to potentially turn a little more “exciting” as we grow closer to Thanksgiving. The forecast upper air pattern is one that has “mischief” written all over it and will likely require more attention as time draws closer. More on this and some updated data (including the European and JMA Weeklies) later this evening with our long range video update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/what-a-start-to-november-looking-ahead/
Nov 12
VIDEO: Looking Ahead To The Thanksgiving Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-looking-ahead-to-the-thanksgiving-pattern/
Nov 08
VIDEO: First Accumulating Snow Of The Season Precedes Record Cold…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-first-accumulating-snow-of-the-season-precedes-record-cold/
Nov 07
Appetizer To The Main Course…
The cold front that moved through the state today will serve as an “appetizer” to the “main course” early next week. This is rather incredible considering lows tonight will fall into the lower 20s for most of central Indiana with highs Friday only topping out in the lower to middle 30s. Keep in mind averages for this time of year include a low of 38° and high of 56°!
Dry conditions should prevail through the weekend, but a strong early season arctic cold front has its eyes set on the region Sunday night. This front will slide south through the state Monday, but there’s an interesting twist that will take place as it does so. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary and push northeast Monday. This should result in precipitation growing in overall coverage across the region to open the work week. With cold air pressing south at this point in time, the majority of precipitation should fall in the form of snow. While we’re not expecting a major winter storm, this should result in the first widespread measurable snow of the season for central Indiana and our weekend products will begin to include more detailed specifics as time draws closer. (The famous “ridiculously” early call from this distance is for a 1″ to 2″ type event).
With true arctic air pressing south so early in the season, expect heavy lake effect snow in the traditional snow belt communities across northern IN, MI, OH, PA, and NY. (May need a yard stick to measure snow in spots in these areas before the snow guns shut off mid to late next week). Accumulating snow will extend as far south as the southern Appalachians in this pattern Monday night into Tuesday.
The cold will be something to behold on the backside of this arctic boundary. Highs across central Indiana will only top out in the middle to upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the 10° to 15° range. Below zero wind chill values can be expected.
Much more on the cold and snow early next week will come here throughout the weekend. We leave you with one last item of interest- looking ahead to the 2nd half of November…
The latest JMA Weeklies suggest a similar pattern- western ridge with a cold eastern trough.
Time to go ahead and bring out the heavier winter gear with the persistent nature of this pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/appetizer-to-the-main-course/