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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-initial-august-forecast/
Jul 19
More Thoughts On August…
The last month of meteorological summer is on our doorstep and while we’re still several days from having our finalized forecast built, here are some early ideas on where the pattern is going for August. First, let’s start with some modeling:
European
The Euro features the ‘mean’ ridge axis across the inner-mountain West with a northwesterly flow aloft into the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes. Given the 500mb pattern, one would think the model would have the heat and wet areas shifted west to better correlate with the ridge placement, but that’s not the case. One item of note is that the model may be seeing tropical influences with the wet area across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
JMA
The JMA is similar with the handling of the 500mb pattern, but better aligns the temperature and precipitation pattern with this look at the upper levels. Brunt of the heat (relative to normal) is across the West with a wet Southeast and Ohio Valley.
CFSv2
While a bit chaotic with the precipitation idea, the CFSv2 seems to be locking the warmer anomalies into the Central and East for August.
As has been the case, the MJO will likely have a big say in the August pattern (and continuing into the fall and winter). Despite modeled attempts in the past to swing things into Phases 4-7, we’ve been stuck in the 8,1,2, and 3 cycles over the past several months, and in Phases 1-2 over the past 40 days.
The EPO and PNA are in warm phases and this looks to continue overall into early August.
The early lean with our August forecast will feature a large area of above normal temperatures, including across the Ohio Valley (slightly so), along with near average precipitation. We’ll continue to look through the data and present our official August Outlook week after next.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-august/
Jul 16
Thursday Evening Long Range Update: Late Summer And Early Autumn Pattern On The Horizon…
As we traverse the “dog days” of summer and look ahead to early autumn, what does the overall pattern hold? As is typical this time of year, the tropics are on the verge of becoming much more active, as well. Given analogs and other drivers, we suggest those with plans to the Gulf or Carolina beaches pay particularly close attention to the developments in the coming weeks and couple of months ahead.
The short-term is, obviously, highlighted by unseasonably warm-hot conditions but there’s reason to buy into the ‘mean’ ridge position retrograding west prior to month’s end. The large majority of long range data shows this taking place, as well.
Note the way the new European Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and JMA Weeklies handle this evolution in similar fashion over the coming 2-3 weeks.
The screaming message is that the period of heat this weekend into early next week will transition west by the 2nd half of next week and into the Week 2 time period. Furthermore, though not saying there can’t be periods of “transient” heat still yet the remainder of the summer, the bulk of the sustained heat should be behind us once to the middle of next week.
Additionally, data is bullish on a wet close to July. This makes sense with the northwest flow aloft.
As the crucial late-summer stretch hits and harvest season is on the horizon, there’s reason to believe a favorable precipitation pattern should persist- if not potentially a bit wetter than normal. The wildcard, of course, as is typically the case has to do with the tropics. It only takes 1 or 2 tropical systems with the “right” inland track to provide heavy rains into the inland regions and there’s many reasons to buy into the fact this will be quite a busy “heart” of the tropical season this year. We’ll have to handle those as they come, as the steering currents can vary in significant fashion and there’s no way to accurately pinpoint inland areas most at risk of late-summer/ early fall heavy rain events from these tropical threats. Certainly, if your plans take you down to the beautiful Gulf Coast or Carolina beaches, it’ll be important to pay close attention to the developments and goings on as the season matures…
Stay tuned as we continue to move forward. In addition to our August Outlook, we’ll have more on where we believe the pattern is heading this fall and winter in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-long-range-update-late-summer-and-early-autumn-pattern-on-the-horizon/
Jul 16
VIDEO: Looking Ahead Into Mid-Late Next Week; Reviewing NEW JMA Weeklies Into August…
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Jul 09
Long Range Update Into Early August…
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