Aug 23
Updated 08.23.23 @ 6:09p I. Hottest conditions banked up against our far western counties today where temperatures climbed into the middle 90s. Heat indices topped the lower 100s in the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/23/dinnertime-rambles-labor-day-weekend-chatter-mjo-rumblings/
Aug 23
Updated 08.23.23 @ 7:50a While the heat and humidity grab headlines (and rightfully so), we’ll have to keep close eyes on the potential of outflow boundaries offering up some cooling…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/23/video-keeping-an-eye-on-storm-chances-big-heat-takes-a-back-seat-early-next-week/
Aug 22
Updated 08.22.23 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/22/video-heat-scattered-strong-late-week-storm-potential-as-heat-breaks/
Aug 20
Updated 08.20.23 @ 8:17a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/20/video-heat-breaks-over-the-upcoming-weekend/
Aug 15
Updated 08.15.23 @ 8a
The short-term will continue to be highlighted by unseasonably cool and refreshing air.
However those that aren’t ready to be done with the summer heat are in luck. Significant warming will take place next week. Yes, we’ll replace those cool, crisp overnight lows in the 50s with lows only in the 70s and highs into the lower 90s for multiple days next week as an upper level ridge expands and builds overhead.
Next week will also feature significantly drier and calmer conditions compared to what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Hot and dry will rule the day, overall. As of now, most of, if not the entire week should be rain-free.
The next question becomes the staying power of the heat as we flip the page into meteorological fall. As a whole, I’m leaning towards at least the first half of fall running well above normal. That doesn’t mean the region isn’t at risk of an early frost threat this year (byproduct of the strengthening Nino event heading into fall and drivers behind what have powered the recent wet times. Speaking of wet, IND is now close to 1.5” above normal month-to-date).
As we push closer towards Labor Day weekend, the long range European data is “cooling” things closer towards seasonal levels after next week’s heat. Hard to disagree with that approach at least for a time before we begin to warm things back up, compared to normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/15/changes-are-brewing/
Jul 04
Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a
There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.
Okay, back to present.
As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.
July
Temperatures
Precipitation
August
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As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…
We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/
Sep 05
Updated 09.05.22 @ 8:45a
I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing Labor Day. Below are some headlines that have our attention as we progress through the week ahead and look forward to the middle of September.
1.) Brighter Days Ahead: Our region has been under the influence of an area of low pressure and associated upper level trough for the past few days. Unfortunately, gloomy skies will prevail today along with scattered slow moving downpours. While everyone won’t get wet, those that do find themselves under one of these convective downpours could easily pick up a quick 1″+ of rain in under an hour. Thankfully, a drier airmass will begin to build in Tuesday before really taking hold in earnest Wednesday through Friday. This will deliver an increasingly sunny sky and lower humidity levels.
2.) Potent Weekend Cold Front: When the calendar turns to September, we always have to start paying a little more attention to approaching cold fronts. That, of course, becomes even more the case the deeper into the fall season we go. The fall severe weather season occasionally rivals that of the spring around these parts and temperature changes become more significant as the days go by. This weekend will feature the 1st true autumn-like frontal passage of the young meteorological fall season.
Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds will pull an increasingly moist and unstable airmass northward (you’ll really notice a difference in the airmass Friday morning compared to that of Saturday morning). It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center is forced to hoist a risk of severe weather across the Ohio Valley Saturday, including here in Indiana. The front is expected to sweep through the state Sunday morning and then we’ll deal with a brief, but significant, “pop” of much cooler, drier air (coolest so far of the season) as we open up next week.
3.) Mid-September Warm Up…Despite the aforementioned “pop” of cooler air to open up next week, all indications continue to point towards another significant warmup with a building ridge over our part of the country as we head into the middle of September. In fact, don’t be shocked if we’re still not quite done with the 90s for the year…
As it sits right now, it appears as if the heat will really start to build towards the end of next week and into the weekend of the 17th. Based on longer range pattern drivers, the balance of the 2nd half of September should run above normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/05/happy-labor-day-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-where-cold-fronts-become-a-bit-more-potent-mid-september-pattern-evolution/
Sep 03
Updated 09.03.22 @ 6:52a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/03/video-setup-in-place-to-present-localized-flooding-through-the-labor-day-holiday/
Sep 02
Updated 09.02.22 @ 7:51a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/02/video-area-of-low-pressure-keeps-things-unsettled-at-times-through-the-holiday-weekend/
Sep 01
Updated 09.01.22 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/01/video-looking-into-the-pattern-into-mid-september/