Category Archives: JMA

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

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NEW JMA Weeklies Shed Light On The Long Range…

Changes are brewing in the longer range and the latest JMA Weeklies illustrate this nicely.

Week 1

No changes are needed to the expected significant heat wave to open the month of July.  Heat and humidity will reach excessive levels at times- heat indices of 100° to 110° at times.  While isolated coverage of storms are possible a few of the days (primarily afternoon and evening variety), it’s a dry pattern, overall.

Week 2

The pattern is in a transitional period during this time frame as the upper ridge retrogrades west.  While still warm, the hottest conditions will shift west under the upper ridge.  The other take-away?  An active northwest flow returns with an emerging “ring of fire” pattern.

Weeks 3-4

While perhaps a bit quick, the model reverses things entirely by the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  There’s no denying we think the hottest period of the summer will be behind us by mid-July, and while this type pattern shown below is where we think the dominant overall pattern is heading for the second half of summer, the model may be a bit aggressive here.  Regardless, the Weeks 3-4 time frame are expected to not only reverse, but turn cooler than average over the Great Lakes region.

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Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…

The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks.  Here are some highlights from the most recent update:

Week 1

The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico).  Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here.  The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat.  An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.

Week 2

The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period.  With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.

Weeks 3-4

An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging.  Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome.  Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here.  It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm