Category: JMA

Evening Long Range Video Update…

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2019 IndyWx.com Summer Outlook

2019 is absolutely flying by! Before you know it, we’ll be releasing our 2019-2020 Winter Outlook. Kidding- sort of. 😉

Is a blazing hot summer in store for central Indiana, or perhaps wet and cool? Let’s dig in to the details…

As we look at current sea surface temperature anomalies, a few items stand out:

I. We expect a weak El Nino to continue through meteorological summer (June through August), and perhaps even into next winter.

II. MDR (Main Development Region for tropical entities) is running cooler than normal and would suggest an overall “less busy” hurricane season from a long-track perspective

III. SSTs are running much warmer than normal in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. This is important as while the long-track tropical systems may not be as frequent, we’ll have to remain on guard for the potential of active times closer to home this season. Additionally, these warmer anomalies tend to lead us to believe precipitation will run above normal across coastal areas into the Deep South this summer.

Let’s look at some of the climate computer model data for the summer season:

The latest IRI model (International Research Institute) shows relative warmth along the coastal areas and the west with greatest wet anomalies across the Northwest.

The CFSv2 is leaning towards an anomalously wet summer across a widespread portion of the country (exception being New England).

As we review the CanSIPS, it likes the idea of a cool, wet summer across the Heartland with warmth along the coasts.

The European Seasonal Forecast has a seasonal summer for most of the country with warmth along the coasts, and a reflection of wetter anomalies across the northern Plain into the Northwest.

(The JMA Seasonal hadn’t updated as of this post).

After taking into account the various seasonal model data above (which is in remarkable overall agreement for a LR forecast idea), along with the current SST configuration, and analog data, this is how we see the Summer of 2019 playing out.

Specific to central Indiana, we’re forecasting a rather wet and cooler than average summer. Frequent storm systems should keep things active around these parts for the balance of the summer season, with the temperature scale tipping a touch cooler than normal.

While the number of named storms should be down compared to normal (highlighted by the Euro seasonal precipitation idea), we’ll have to keep close tabs on the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast for the potential of “last minute” development. Those warmer than normal sea surface temperatures lurking off the coast does warrant concern for at least the threat of another active year from a landfall perspective.

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Special Evening Video Update On Next Week’s Flood Threat…

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Thursday Evening Video: Wet Open To The Weekend Before A Cold Finish; Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies…

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More On The Late March-Early April Pattern And Reviewing The NEW JMA Weeklies…

As we look ahead, a persistent western Canada/ Alaska ridge continues to show up on the medium to long range data. The downstream implications are for cooler than normal temperatures, overall, across the eastern and central portions of the country into early April.

Upper air pattern- Days 4-9
Surface temperature anomalies- Days 4-9
Upper air pattern- Days 9-14
Surface temperature anomalies- Days 9-14

Given the time of the year (and pattern), cool won’t rule the entire period. It’s just that the cold will “out do” the transient warmth in between storm systems over the next couple of weeks.

When we look at the teleconnections (combo of negative EPO and neutral to slightly positive PNA is ruling the day for now), they support the lingering chill into early-April.

However, as we turn the page from early-April to mid-April, the idea here is that an eastern ridge will begin to expand west with more “umph” and eventually lead to warmth overwhelming the pattern. We aren’t budging from the original idea of a warmer than normal April by month’s end. It sure appears as if the NEW JMA Weeklies are catching onto this idea.

Weeks 3-4 (mid April) forecast upper air pattern.

From a precipitation perspective, the majority of medium and long range model data does show a return of wetter times (relative to normal) as we move into April, including an active storm track. The beginning of this overall shift in the pattern back towards wetter than normal conditions will begin early next week.

We’ll recap our latest short-term thinking, including an update on the NEW European Weeklies that will arrive this evening later tonight in a video update.

In the meantime, make it a fantastic Thursday- and happy tip off to March Madness!

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