Category: JMA

VIDEO: Discussing Weekend Rain And Updated Weeks 2-4 Thoughts…

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Interesting Test Case In Front Of Us: Euro Vs. Everyone Else…

As we look ahead to late September, there’s a battle beginning to take place in model land. When we pull back the curtain, we note the GEFS and EPS handle the evolution of the EPO in two totally different manners in the Week 2 time period.

The GEFS begins to tank the EPO, suggesting cooler times are ahead to close September.
The EPS maintains a positive EPO and associated much warmer pattern to close September.

Our stand on the evolution of the pattern remains unchanged: that much cooler times will return as we get set to wrap up the month and head into early October. Updated data, aside from the European, suggests we’re on the right track with that train of thought.

JMA Weeklies- Week 2

CFSv2- Week 2

GEFS- Week 2

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VIDEO: Fall-Like Now, But Summer Warmth Isn’t Finished…

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VIDEO: Latest Thoughts Into The 1st Month Of Meteorological Fall…

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Wetter Times Set To Go Along With The Warmer Pattern?

As we look to crank up the heat into the 2nd half of August, there’s growing confidence we may also add wetter times into the regime.

The most recent Drought Monitor Update shows ‘abnormal’ dryness extending through the majority of the state. While we await another update this morning (8a eastern), it’s likely to include more of central Indiana that missed out on beneficial rainfall over the past week.

With that said, there’s growing reason to believe that an increasingly moist southerly flow will not only produce better chances of rain to close the work week and head into the weekend, but longer term as well (into the Weeks 2-3 time period).

Note how the NEW JMA Weeklies are much wetter across our region not only in the more immediate term, but into the Weeks 3-4 time period, as well:


The GEFS is also showing the flip to wetter times:

A lot of this likely has to do with the modeling seeing the impact of a Bermuda High that will help assist in steering Gulf moisture northward through the 2nd half of the month. Additionally, a fairly active storm track is expected (especially for this time of year) to our northwest and this will result in more frequent opportunities for rainfall across not only central Indiana, but a large chunk of the Ohio Valley, as a whole.

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