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Category: JMA
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Jun 18
Long Range Update: Changes Afoot…
Looking at a simple snapshot of the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map would suggest a La Nina is brewing (image 1), BUT the latest SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, also knows as the SOI) suggests otherwise (images 2-3):
In fact, the SOI values noted would suggest an El Nino is coming on. The daily hit of more than 30 suggests some wild swings in the weather over the upcoming couple of weeks across the Lower 48. Now, we still anticipate this to transition more towards a positive direction and a subsequent La Nina to, indeed, develop by fall and winter, but this is worth continuing to pay attention to and we’ll do just that.
As we look at June to-date across central Indiana, temperatures are running a little more than 2° above normal and precipitation is just over 1″ below normal. Given the pattern ahead, we continue to like where we stand with our June forecast overall: near-average precipitation and temperatures. This will, obviously take a wetter, cooler shift in the regime as we move through the next 10-12 days. Overall, that’s where we continue to believe we’re heading.
The latest JMA Weeklies hot off the press shows this big cool, wet change across our region. A series of troughs are shown to descend into the Ohio Valley during the next 10-16 days. As the individual cold fronts sweep through the region, better chances of rain will result and temperatures will run cooler than normal, overall.
Week 1
Week 2
The latest GEFS data is very similar in this wet, cool shift.
There’s support for this pattern in looking at the latest East Pacific Oscillation, as well. Negative values support central/ eastern cool and periods of transition from positive to negative (and vice-versa) also can help promote wet/ more active periods.
The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a “sneaky” wild card in all of this. Note how the MJO is currently shown to slowly move through Phase 2 before going into the wheelhouse and emerging into Phase 8 by month’s end. While certainly not highly amplified, this is enough to have impacts. Note that Phases 2 and 8 this time of year maintain a cooler look, locally.
In summary, though it’s certainly been dry over the past couple of weeks, we think there’s more than enough reason not to fret. Not only are we looking at a pattern that should keep the heat (at least in a prolonged sense) west of our region, but the pattern drivers above should also result in a much more active regime with frontal passages and associated areas of low pressure moving through the region. This will begin in earnest early next week and continue through Week 2.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-changes-afoot/
May 28
Thursday Morning Rambles: Tropical Air Gets The Boot; Eyeing A Warm Stretch Of Weather Through The 1st Half Of June?
Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.
The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.
The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.
Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.
Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.
The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.
We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-tropical-air-gets-the-boot-eyeing-a-warm-stretch-of-weather-through-the-1st-half-of-june/
Apr 23
Detailing 2 Late-Week Systems; Looking Into Early-May…
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Apr 16
VIDEO: Significant Mid-April Winter Storm Impacts The Northern Ohio Valley Tonight-Friday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-significant-mid-april-winter-storm-impacts-the-northern-ohio-valley-tonight-friday/