Updated 09.12.22 @ 11:02p
The JMA long range (3 month) and seasonal (December through February) data is in and helps increase our confidence in the fast start to winter- for a change. The baseline of our call on a fast start is primarily due to analog research, along with keying in on global SST configurations.
Despite the latest European printing out a head fake from its August update, the JMA is going right to the 500mb look that could lead to all sorts of fun and games as the holidays near.
After a warm look to October (see no reason to disagree with that idea), note how the model begins to flip things around in November (2nd set of images) and December (3rd set of images).
I’ll spend more time tomorrow discussing the JMA updates in a video discussion. In short, another highly respected long range model is keying in on at least the kind of look that would lead to a vastly different close to fall and open to winter over the past couple of years…